Benefits
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Cities
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Equips your business to manage risk and opportunities more effectively
European Cities and Regions Scenario Service
Analyses the potential impacts of alternative economic scenarios over our base case forecast
Service features Multiple scenarios. Each quarter our economists produce three alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts – a moderate upside, a moderate downside, and a severe downside. Comprehensive city and regional coverage. Results for each scenario are available at the national level, and for all NUTS1, NUTS2 and NUTS3 regions across 20 European countries. A broad range of indicators. We provide a broad range of indicators for each scenario, including GDP and employment by sector, unemployment, population, household income and consumer spending. User-friendly delivery. Our online databank allows users to access the data and forecasts quickly and efficiently. The system supports custom queries and delivers the results via spreadsheets, charts, tables, and maps. Economist support. Our team of city specialists is available to answer any questions about our data, forecasts and scenarios.
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Enables effective testing of existing portfolios under multiple scenarios
Supports planning for possible future economic downsides
Regularly updated scenarios for cities and regions across Europe
Service overview Oxford Economics’ European Cities and Regions Scenario Service quantifies how upside and downside risks to the European economy might affect individual cities and regions. Updated each quarter, it provides a baseline forecast and three alternative scenarios for a broad range of economic and demographic indicators for each location. The service is fully supported by our team of city specialists.
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Indicators included
Our approach The scenarios are developed through a combination of assessing forecast errors for each country over the past 20 years, which are a direct measure of the uncertainty around the baseline forecast, and our country expertise to reflect particular risks at any given time. This methodology is similar to that used by major central banks when assessing the risks around their central projections. Our approach ensures that changes to scenarios from quarter to quarter are due to a transparent assessment of emerging or receding risks. At the centre of our approach is our renowned Global Economic Model (GEM), which integrates individual country models through global assumptions about trade volumes and prices, competitiveness, interest and exchange rates, capital flows, and commodity prices. The GEM links directly to our European Cities and Regions model, ensuring full consistency between national and sub-national projections.
Our scenarios are available for more than 1,500 NUTS1, NUTS2 and NUTS3 regions, including all major cities, in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, UK, Norway, Switzerland, Russia and Turkey. Results are also available for UK local authority districts as an optional extension.
To find out more and get in touch with us, visit us at www.oxfordeconomics.com/european-cities-forecasts
GDP, total and for 18 sectors* Employment, total and for 18 sectors* Population, total and for 5-year age cohorts Resident employment, unemployment and workforce Household disposable income, consumer spending and retail sales *Sectors - Agriculture, forestry & fishing; Mining & quarrying; Manufacturing; Electricity, gas & water supply; Construction; Wholesale & retail trade; Accommodation & food services; Transport & storage; Information & communication; Financial & insurance activities; Real estate activities; Professional, scientific & technical activities; Administrative & support service activities; Public administration & defence; Education; Health & social work; Arts, entertainment & recreation; Other service activities
Software and support Global Data Workstation. This web-based application allows users to access our online databanks. The user can select locations and variables of interest, determine the time period, choose levels or growth rates, and view the results in charts, tables and maps. Searches can be saved for future reference and downloaded as a spreadsheet or image Excel Data Workstation. This is a simple but powerful add-in for accessing data from Oxford Economics directly within Excel Economist support. Our team of city specialists is available to answer any questions about our data and forecasts.