2049 BBA Media Guide

COMMISIONER'S OFFICE EXPLORE THE BREWSTER http://montybrewster.net/ Apply: http://montybrewster.net/forums/app.phpapplicationform 2049 Commissioner: Matt Rectenwald Vice Commissioner: Aaron Weiner League Director: Ron Collins League Advisor: Randy Weigand PR Director/Historian: Stephen Lane UMEBA Ambassador: Mike Simon CONTENTS 2048 Year In Review 2048 Caleca Award Hall of Fame: Class of 2049 FEATURES BBA Combined Power Rankings - James Walker BBA Player Rater - James Walker Greatest Dynasties in BBA History - Aaron Weiner BBA Sportsbook Vanishes - Chris Wilson THE PROJECTION ROOM 2049 Preamble - Aaron Weiner BBA Johnson League - Chris Wilson BBA Frick League - Aaron Weiner UMEBA Bancroft - Woody Donahue UMEBA Burt - John Momberg Cover & Playoff Graphics - Mike Simon Editing, Design & Publishing - Stephen Lane 2048 FINAL BBA STANDINGS 2046 FINAL UMEBA STANDINGS 2048 Caleca Award 48.08 - "The Kid" by Morris Ragland Why are you here? You've got nothing to prove to nobody. Thirty-seven and still playing this game. You got the trophies. You got the stats. You're fine. You're good. Everybody knows it. You sure don't need the money. Your kids' kids' kids will still be living off that. You joke, “when they pull the shirt off my back.” Is it funny now? Here you are, wearing whatever uniform they offer (got your number, though, so it's all good, I guess). A non-roster invitee. Really? Would Gillstrom have put up with this? You a glutton for punishment? Why are you here? Your family is over it. Wife says she isn't moving again, period. Not pulling the kids out of another school. Some fancy Montessori where they speak French. Mom from Quebec wanted to raise them bilingual. You don't speak French. You just sit there at the table and the three of them speak their secret language. Share their secret jokes. You love them to death, but they're like strangers most days. That is, the days you're actually around. When will you ever just be dad? Did you even want to be a dad? Now batting, the designated hitter, David Noboru. Cheers. Not for you, though. That other guy. That other guy was a beast. You barely even look like him anymore. Why are you here? No way this organizational guy's getting over on you. No, sir. Not this one. Remember to let that knuckle curve go. Can't throw it for strikes. No sense waiving at it. There it goes. Ball one. Got to use your wiles. But there's no substitute for young hands, young legs, young back, young eyes (though your eyes were never that picky, if you're being honest). Don't move like you did. How is the back so strong and so delicate at the same time? Whap! Ball on leather. There's the heater, 100 mph. Strike one. You'll catch the next one, sure. You've seen this before. You've got to conserve your strength. Wait for your moment. Pick your spot, and uncoil like a snake. Heater again. Now, swing! Bam! Nope, didn't get all of it. Liner. Center fielder only needs a few steps to glove it. Back to the dugout. Why are you here? It's not like you got nothing else to live for. You could go back home to Vegas. Put a band together. Get some sweet residency gig in a classy lounge. You've got a good voice. A name people know. Singers your age still in their prime. Get a regular schedule. Drive to work. See that family you say you care about. It would be a good life. “Baseball will tell you when to retire,” they said, but you're going to make it scream in your face, aren't you? Just shaking the rust off, that's all. Long winter. Carrying that phone around with your everywhere. A little more BP and you'll be right again, sure. You tell yourself that. You can get there. Just need some time. Why are you here, though? Because nobody else called, man. Nobody else called. 48.08 - "The Kid" by Morris Ragland David Noboru HALL OF FAME CLASS OF 2048 These power rankings are a combination of playoff appearances, championships, 3 yrs Pythagorean wins, 3 yr actual win total and 3 yr season RPI. The formula is playoff appearances *4+ championships *8+ average 3 yrs pyth + average 3 yrs actual wins + average 3 yrs season rating/ 5. James Walker, GM - Hawaii Tropics BBA Combined Power Rankings BBA Player Rater continues on next page *Editors Note: zScore is a measure of how far above or below the mean (average) a particular data point is. More precisely, when looking at a single zScore, it indicates how many standard deviations away from the mean that point is. In a summation and weighting of zScores as we see here, it's best to view it as an indicator of how far above average by multiple measures these players are. For this system we will utilize the two player rater systems that I used for the League Feature on the forums and the previous media guide. The first system is a stats-based system where I plugged in a player’s stats. The stats I chose were HR, RBI, Runs, Avg, OBP, SLG and SB. I took those stats and found the Average and Standard Deviation of each stat. I used those to make a zScore* for each stat then totaled the zScores for a final score for each player. This time I used stats from 2046,2047 and 2048 seasons then weighted each season zScore. I gave a 10% weighting for 2046, 30% for 2047 and a 60% for 2048. I then added the three weighted zScores to come up with the final score. Here's the current Top 10 list for zScore, followed by a writeup of each player. James Walker, GM - Hawaii Tropics The Top 10 Hitters in the BBA by zScore BBA Player Rater continues on next page 1. Pedro Bustamante RF San Antonio Outlaws- Pedro jumped from 16th in 2047 to #1 in 2048. Bustamante had an incredible 2048 for the Outlaws with 229 hits, 43 homers and 101 RBI. He posted an 8.6 WAR with career highs in OBP, slugging and OPS. At $11,687,500 in 2048, he is a bargain. His salary will raise to $15 million in 2049 and $18 million in 2050. He posts 8+ WAR in those seasons he will remain a cheap superstar. 2. Angel Gonzalez RF San Fernando Bears- Last season’s #1 drops to #2 but still has another solid season. Gonzalez had his fourth consecutive 200 + hit season for the Bears. He slashed .319/.365/.553 with 27 HR and 72 RBI while stealing 77 bags and was caught 24 times while posting a 7 WAR. Gonzalez will receive $15.11 million per season through 2051. 3. Pancho Costa Jacksonville Hurricanes- Costa had shown small improvements early in his career but he has made huge leaps the past two seasons. He slashed .329/.376/.600 with 38 homers and 107 RBI. He also showed his speed with 56 SB in 82 attempts. He posted a career high WAR of 6.5. Costa is a huge bargain at $7,361,250 for 2048 but will see his salary almost double to $13 million in 2049. 4. Manobu Shimizu RF Madison Wolves- Shimizu remains in the fourth spot. He fell just shy of 200 hits at 198 and hit 28 HR while driving in 112 runs. He has been very consistent posting a 6.7, 6.8 and 6.7 WAR the past 3 seasons. He has six more seasons remaining on his deal with a player opt out in the final season in 2054. 5. Luis Mendoza 2B/3B Louisville Sluggers- Mendoza moves from #7 to #5 with an improvement in production. Mendoza raised his average from 2047 hitting .283 with 35 homers and 111 RBI. He swiped 61 bases and posted an 8.1 WAR. Mendoza is still arb eligible, but will he be signed to an extension or traded soon? 6. Andres Ly RF Omaha Cyclones- Improves from #9 to #6 after a solid season for Omaha. Ly saw his average dip below .300 but he was productive when needed with 37 homers and 110 RBI. He struck out 132 times while walking 88. His WAR dropped from 8 in 2047 to 6.8. Ly’s salary will drop after signing an extension to stay in Omaha until 2054 going from $14,620,000 to $11 million in 2049. The compact then jumps to $17 million in 2050 and to $20 million in 2051. 7. Larry Stinson 1B Calgary Pioneers- Stinson thrived in Calgary after a trade from San Antonio putting up a 6.2 WAR season for the Pioneers. He slashed .316/.402/.621 with 43 homers and 118 RBI. He fell short of the 200 hit plateau after getting to it in 2047. Stinson made $15.5 million in 2048 and will see his pay escalate to $17 million for 2049-50 ending with $20 million with a Player Option in 2054. 8. Juan Rivera LF Atlantic City Gamblers - Rivera had another big year to propel the Atlantic City Gamblers to a playoff appearance. Rivera slashed .311/.385/.583 with 35 HR and 111 ribbies. He swiped 37 bags and posted a 7.4 WAR. He is making $26 million this season and has a player opt out and an option in the next two seasons. 9. Daniel Pepper 2B Rockville Pikemen- Pepper showed the talent that he revealed to the BBA in his rookie season in 2041 when he batted .418 in 75 games. He climbs into the top 10 with a 206-hit season. He slashed .349/.412/.610 for Rockville smashing 33 bombs and driving in 112. He struck out 76 times while walking 63. He finished the season with a career high 10 WAR. Pepper is a ticking time bomb with a player opt out on the horizon. He is taking home $20 million per season and if he continues to put up these numbers he may seek more. 10. Pedro Huerta RF Edmonton Jackrabbits- Huerta makes his first appearance on this list at the #10 spot. He had another 4+ WAR season for Edmonton slashing .315/.362/.550 with 30 homers and 115 RBI. Huerta will get paid an annual salary of $11.5 million through the 2052 season. BBA Player Rater continues on next page The Top 10 Hitters in the BBA by zScore The second system I used is the Hitters Game Score. The formula for this score is from Stats+ and is as follows: (-4XAB)+(7XR)+(7XRBI)+(5XHR)+(5XBB)=Game Score. I plugged in the players stats for 2046, 2047 and 2048 seasons, calculated the Average Game Score and then weighted each season’s game score as before (10%, 30% and 60%), then totaled for a final Weighted Game Score. The Top 10 BBA hitters in Hitters Game Score: BBA Player Rater The Top 10 Hitters in the BBA by Game Score continues on next page #1 Pedro Bustamante RF San Antonio Outlaws- Pedro makes it a clean sweep taking the top spot in game score. #2 Manobu Shimizu RF Madison Wolves- Shimizu is #2 once again in game score. #3 Daniel Pepper 2B Rockville Pikemen- Pepper makes his appearance on the Game Score list at #3 after missing out last season. #4 Larry Stinson 1B Calgary Pioneers- Stinson improves from #5 to #4. #5 Julio Barajas RF Rockville Pikemen- Barajas made the top 10 last season in the #8 spot and this season moves up. Julio has seen a drop in power, but he hit more singles, doubles and triples. He cracked 223 hits in total with just 18 from the long ball. He still drove in 109 runs and continues to walk more than he strikes out. He slashed .374/.418/.562 and posted a 6.3 WAR. Barajas is cheap costing just $13 million per season until 2051 with a player option. #6 Andres Ly RF Omaha Cyclones- Ly is also #6 on this list and improves from being at #9 last season. #7 Pancho Costa Jacksonville Hurricanes- Costa makes his first appearance in the Top 10 for Game Score. #8 Pedro Huerta RF Edmonton Jackrabbits- Huerta improves from #10 to #8 in GS #9 Angel Gonzalez RF San Fernando Bears- Gonzalez has dropped from #6. #10 Luis Mendoza 2B/3B Louisville Sluggers- Mendoza rounded out this group as the only difference in the two lists was Barajas in Game Score in place of Juan Rivera in zScore. The Top 10 Hitters in the BBA by Game Score continues on next page BBA Player Rater So the question is: how great is the Rockville dynasty? The only reasonable way to compare is to compare to the other all-time greats. I’ll consider this statistically and with some context and come out with a logical order, though feel free to draw your own conclusions from this. My ranking will occur in order of what I feel is most impressive to least with some summary statistics. I’ve put a little more emphasis on BBA titles than regular season success, but remember while you’re reading that we’re talking about the best of the best, so there’s really no loser here. All stats done on stapplet.com if you’re looking for a good free site. Aaron Weiner, GM - Rockville Pikemen Greatest Dynasties in BBA History With their fifteenth straight postseason appearance in a row, Rockville tied the all-time record for consecutive playoff appearances. Only the Pikemen and the 2020-2034 Las Vegas Hustlers have accomplished the feat. This feat likely puts the Pikemen into the pantheon of all-time BBA teams. They will also have a chance to own the record outright next year, if they make the playoffs again. However, even great accomplishments should be put into perspective. There are some who believe that Rockville’s accomplishment should get an asterisk, primarily because Rockville was in the playoffs last year as a sixth seed, and not for the first time: for much of the BBA’s history, there were 24 teams and only four playoff teams per league. Others have pointed out that Rockville doesn’t even have the most wins in the BBA during that timespan: that honor goes to the Yellow Springs Nine. Their other longevity record, fourteen consecutive seasons with 90 wins (broken this year with an 89-win season), has been called arbitrary and despite a good marker of success does seem somewhat arbitrary. Some of Rockville’s other continues on next page continues on next page Las Vegas I (2017-2041) Wins Team WAR Playoffs: 23 of 25 years By average WAR, this is one of the lowest groups on this list. But the team averaged almost 97 wins for almost three decades. There’s prolonged excellence and then there’s 25 years when you miss the playoffs twice. That’s how this gets the #1 spot on my list. They won two championships during that time. Las Vegas II (2017-2041) Wins Team WAR Playoffs: All 9 years Vegas with the two top spots on this list? Yup. Five titles and six pennants in nine years with an average WAR of 58 is absurdly dominant, even if it doesn’t have the longevity of other teams on this list. Their 75-WAR 2006 season is probably the single greatest team of all time; I count at least 5 Hall of Famers on that team. continues on next page continues on next page New Orleans (2012-2023) Wins Team WAR Playoffs: All 12 years New Orleans won four titles between 2012 and 2019 in the second greatest championship run in history, and also didn’t fall below 90 wins once between 2013 and 2023. They averaged 96 wins for the timespan and their 2013 65 WAR team was one of the best in league history, even if it didn’t win their 5th title. Rockville (2034-Present) Wins Team WAR Playoffs: All 15 years Rockville’s run is shorter than some, longer than others, but also includes two titles and four pennants. The averages aren’t too far behind, there’s the “every year with 90 wins” and they’re also the only team in history to win three consecutive pennants. Rockville could move up this list with three to five more consecutive seasons in the playoffs. continues on next page Yellow Springs (2028-Present) Wins Team WAR Playoffs: 20 out of 21 years This looks even better when you consider the 80 win season was a legitimate statistical outlier; in fact they’ve been so good that their one 85 win season was, too. This is simply the best regular season run in BBA history, and they do have five Frick League pennants. continues on next page California/Sacramento (2023-2043) Wins Team WAR Playoffs: 19 out of 21 years This run doesn’t statistically hold up to any of the others on this list, but it’s still amazing to hold onto a playoff spot for basically two decades. It took them just three years to go back. In part included to show just how elite this list is, because even this dynasty doesn’t hold up to the others on the list. continues on next page continues on next page Other Significant Streaks Edmonton Jackrabbits 2037-2045: Just doesn’t quite make it, but as a short run it’s somewhat comparable to both Vegas and New Orleans: 100% playoffs, 96 wins per season and three titles. Impressive as hell. Jacksonville Hurricanes 2029-2040: Basically just about as impressive as Edmonton’s run; 94 wins a season, 100% playoffs for 12 years, three titles, very nice. I can make an argument for either over Cal/Sac. Madison Wolves 1997-2009: The Cricket/Bopper years, until the music died. Thirteen straight playoff appearances is still third on the all-time list, for now. All of them were division titles. Vancouver Mounties 1999-2010: Missed the playoffs once, two titles right at the beginning of the run. Clearly lacking the longevity or the dominance of higher rated teams. Louisville Sluggers 2040-present: Almost 97 wins a season, two titles, missed playoffs just once, in 2044. Still going, so we’ll see. Baltimore Monarchs (Brooklyn) 1999-2013: Missed the playoffs once. Barely averaged 90 wins over the timespan and won seven division titles with less than 90 wins. One title. Des Moines Kernels 2008-present: The defining league flipside streak, Des Moines has averaged an astonishing 95 losses per season for four decades of play with just 5 winning seasons. Technically had a one-game tiebreaker playoff in 2030, but officially they have missed the playoffs for 41 straight seasons. Analysis I’m pretty sure this is the right order, at least at the top. Twenty-three out of twenty-five years for Vegas and five championships in nine years are records that are unlikely to be surpassed. That said, not a lot separates, say, Jacksonville’s 12 year run from New Orleans’, and it’s possible I’m overplaying teams like Yellow Springs and Sacramento and even the top Las Vegas team for longevity rather than focusing on the less extended, but perhaps more spectacular runs. It’s why I had to mention these teams, even though I think in the hierarchy of superteams they’re just a slight bit behind because of years. However, if Yellow Springs had won even two titles during their run, I might have been tempted to give them the #1 spot, so I can’t argue this too much. And it’s so hard to make the playoffs 19 out of 21 years, even if the inner workings of the team aren’t quite as amazing as some of the teams right below them. So, I feel good about my order, even while allowing that there’s definitely some argument there. The one thing I don’t feel bad about, after this analysis, is putting my team where I have. Putting together 97 wins per year, multiple all-time records, and possibly as many as five or six Hall of Famers leads me to believe at the very least that Rockville belongs up in the Pantheon, and it’ll be exciting to see where the team goes over the next few years. THE PROJECTION ROOM Welcome back! It's your favorite part of the Media Guide. What does Aaron think about the Frick League? What secrets will Chris reveal about his Johnson League analysis? Have you read this exact same lede before? Is the joke about Chris' Johnson still not funny? Of course we're previewing the UMEBA as well, with Woody on the Bancroft League and Morris on the Burt. The completely accurate estimate of your team winning 90+ games lies in the pages ahead, and if they predicted your team under .500 you should proably put it up in the clubhouse as a reminder of just how wrong the prediction is. And of course don't forget to read the previews of the other teams...who knows, you might find a weakness or two to exploit! aaron weiner, gm, rockville pikemen You sometimes hear a primal scream after someone wins a championship; a barbaric yawp of epic proportions as a person’s lifelong endeavors end on the mountaintop in their chosen sport. You almost never hear TWO primal screams, one from the winners, and one from the losers; surely you almost never hear that from their cities. And yet, in the East in Ohio and the West in Nevada, such a thing did occur last November. Yellow Springs had pushed Las Vegas to a seventh game in what many believed was their best chance at a title ever, and when the last pitch was thrown and Yellow Springs had fallen to the Hustlers, as so many had before, you could hear the cries from Ohio all over the country, and a country wept along with them for what could have been. But at the same time, in Sin City, the Hustlers, the most successful team in BBA history, the team with by far the most championships, had emerged victorious for a startling eleventh time, ten under Matt Rectenwald, and what you heard from there was the dominant franchise in the BBA restored to their throne, with two straight championship belts and the opportunity this year to do what no other BBA team has ever done: three-peat. In fact, only one team has ever won so much as three straight pennants; even during Las Vegas’ most impressive stretches, the most they ever managed was two in a row. With perhaps the most dominant team in the JL since Rockville was in its prime and just a little nibbling around the edges of their championship team, Las Vegas has an exceptional chance this year to be the first ever BBA team to accomplish the feat. The Hustlers are already alone on the mountaintop, but they could have it all. What might make Yellow Springs’ defeat harder to swallow is that the team shed talent this offseason as they rarely have, and there are only so many iterations of that before a franchise has to go searching for a way to restructure or rebuild. The Nine might fall back a little from their 102 win season, but they’re still a very high quality ballclub who should have another shot in October this year. Speaking of impressive accomplishments, the Rockville Pikemen tied the Hustlers’ all time record with their 15th straight playoff appearance this year (and had their record 14 year streak of 90+ wins snapped with an 89 win season this year). There’s a corollary article in this Media Guide which shows some of the all-time BBA playoff and championship streaks; feel free to debate which ones are better than Rockville’s. I’m not sure I’ve answered the question I set out to answer with that one, either, feel free to give me your best opinion. Yellow Springs makes it, too. Rockville fought their way to the Cartwright from the 6 seed, where they lost a five-game series to the Hustlers which looked closer than it was; they had the top offense last year and lost basically nothing from that, so we’ll see. While we’re in the JL, let’s consider some of the fantastic pitching staffs the teams have been putting together. This year was a record low for offensive output, and teams like Phoenix, Calgary, Atlantic City, Jacksonville and Charlotte made sure the scoreboards didn’t ring too many times, as all four teams allowed less than four runs per game last year. Charlotte, Atlantic City, and Jacksonville all have good enough teams where keeping the rings off the scoreboards might put them right on their fingers; all three teams won at least 93 games last year and are very dangerous ballclubs. New Orleans almost slipped into the playoffs, just two games behind Rockville, and Charm City scored 753 runs and allowed 740 while losing 73 games, so they might stand to improve this season. It’s hard to see anyone else crashing the party, though San Antonio added a huge bat in Lucio de la Cruz and Mexico City made some underrated moves this offseason. Over in the FL, of course, it’s the Heartland and the Mad Popes, which I’m pretty sure is the name of a Christian rock band. The Mad Popes paced the circuit with 111 wins last year, and while intelligent minds can debate whether they’ve fallen back from that sort of uberteam pace (their Pythagorean record was 108 wins), adding Alaric Wullenweber and Mike Campbell can’t possibly hurt. The Heartland, of course, is full of grit, vinegar, and hard feelings, and we’re predicting that all four wild cards come from the Heartland: Louisville, Nashville, Chicago, and Yellow Springs – which leaves Omaha to get the division title. Though that’s like predicting which lion will be most successful dining on the wildebeest, which of course is the Pacific Division. Who could hypothetically sneak into what has been a fairly stable playoff structure the past few years? Portland has upgraded their offense to the point where it might be a viable unit, and they were fifth in pitching last year. Madison, of course, is lurking in the shadows, but they’re just the victims of unbelievably bad timing. Helps if you take the longview I guess. Valencia might have a shot, too, especially if they can dine on their division. In the BBA universe, a nation cries for the Yellow Springs Nine, who went in there without their ace, with the expectations of a repeating curse, and came inches away from ending their long fever dream. The greatest regular season team of all time was so close to capturing one that they could feel it – but as so many before them, Las Vegas was able to grasp it. Watching this 76th BBA season, we’ll be looking to see if Vegas can three-peat, if Yellow Springs stays dominant, if Rockville can capture the all-time record for consecutive playoff appearances, and to see if more pitching records might fall, but mostly we’ll be looking to see if our own barbarian yawps of joy could be too far away from our own mouths, and whether the impossible can become possible yet again. twenty forty nine, the preamble frick league, heartland division Omaha 95-67 Yellow Springs 94-66 Louisville 94-66 Chicago 93-67 Nashville 93-67 Madison 85-77 Des Moines 65-97 Twin Cities 51-111 Yellow Springs won this with 102 wins last year, but I don’t think they’ve replaced 100% of that 13 WAR they lost this offseason. To be honest, this division is tightening up; it’s not so much that I’m not taking a stance as that anyone in this division is good enough to rise up and grab it. I think Omaha is the best team by a hair because of their new offensive talent, and I actually think the bands on all of these five teams are a little tighter than I usually think. The Nine lost a ton of players this offseason and are trying to replace their bullpen with minor leaguers and Robert Chenoweth’s 40 homers with almost nothing at all. That said, they have a fantastic rotation and a good but not great offense left over afterward, and it would require some injuries to knock them off completely. The Cyclones added a few new faces to the offense I like, and I’m putting them as the frontrunners; they have a great rotation, have led the league in offense twice in the past three years, and I think they’re slight favorites over the Nine. The other three teams below them are all excellent, of course; Louisville had the #1 offense last year, and I might be underrating them a bit. Chicago has been consistently in the playoffs for the last seven years and I figure they’ll make it eight. And I might be underrating Nashville, too, as the Bluebirds are a super solid ballclub with tons of talent and a great farm. I think Madison did as well as they could do last year. I also think Twin Cities did that, but they are really wrecked. And Des Moines, poor Des Moines, they’ll be a little better this year. Remember that all of these record projections are median projections and you’ll understand why I don’t feel like I’m copping out here, and I think they’re actually all trading in a small window. The only thing I had to be sure about to post this was Yellow Springs’ mild drop, and I should point out I’m actually not sure, but I don’t think they win more than, say, the 102 games they won last year. Twin Cities River Monsters Everything you need to know about the Twin Cities River Monsters can be summed up in three numbers.The first number is 31.7:that’s the number of millions of dollars of dead money on TWC’s books, being paid to Chip Puckett and Ronnie Hubbard.The second is 32.1, which is the number of pitches that deeply overpaid $30 million starter Carlos Rodriguez threw in 2048.And the third one is -13.7, which is the lowest WAR for a lineup in the history of the BBA.Twin Cities is just barely solvent and in a fair world would have been folded.Welcome to the Association’s most wrecked franchise.Avert your eyes. The Twin Cities pitching staff isn’t actually as empty as you’d expect from a team who just lost 122 games, but things change.Starting pitcher Nelson Hoskin made his debut last year, and he’s been improving the finer points of his game; he won 10% of their games last year (4).The aforementioned Rodriguez is probably close to washed up at 38, but he still throws hard.Starter Hao Kun appears consistent, but a 4.21 ERA is ten percent below league average now.I like starter Pat Sloan, who could be better than he’s ever played.Not so much overrated John Avery, who’s just a full major league season away from grabbing the walks allowed title from Des Moines’ Deron Alexander.The team has several competent relievers and wasn’t entirely pathetic last year, unlike their offense. Ah, yes, their offense: the single worst unit of any sort in the history of the BBA.They scored 2.9 runs a game last year and barely broke the Mendoza line as a team.That’s not a typo:they posted less runs per game than Yellow Springs’ pitching staff allowed.Where to begin…could it be the holdover double play combination of Ryan Phelps and Jim Herrick, who combined for a WAR seven games below league average?Could it be -2 WAR leadoff man Masahiko Matsui?How about veteran Oliverio Luna, whose .668 OPS was second worst among qualifying first basemen?The team appears to have found a winner of sorts in Rory Linseman, who wasn’t bad at all last year, and Vasco Fonzarelli might be legitimately good.And they could get a bounceback season from Bastiao Fardos, who they’re likely overpaying for two more seasons.The lineup isn’t just poor offensively, it’s also not very good defensively. This franchise is still FUBARed, but there is an increasingly bright light at the end of the tunnel.They’ll probably lose about $20-$25 million a season for the next two years, but their cap situation cleans out after 2050 at the latest, assuming their four big money players all pick up their player options.At that point their cap number is $35.6 million, and they’d do well to keep it close to that number until around 2052.Two seasons of spending nearly nothing should bring them back to solvency, and at that point they can think about making some moves.Their farm system is heavily overrated except for the potentially excellent Erik Brooks and the potentially decent Maurice Jeffes, but the good news is that the team should have a few consecutive top two picks, starting this year.How well they do in the draft will determine how quickly the franchise returns to respectability, but it’s not going to be soon.  Madison Wolves The Madison Wolves nearly broke through last year.You could almost feel it.I’m a big enough man to admit I was wrong about Senen Subandrio, who could be the best reliever in the BBA not named Todd Stone, also a Wolf.They saw value in Elijah Campos when nobody else did.They’ve secretly built an offense out of glue and chewing gum and some guy named Manobu that might be deeper and more talented than we thought.They were seventh in runs scored and sixth in runs allowed last year.So what’s it going to take for this team to break through in the toughest division in the BBA? Madison has a very classical lineup, with outstanding hitters in the 1-2-3 slots that get on base, run, and are consistent in their game.Nobody is more consistent than Manobu who by his standards could barely find the ball in hitting .351 last year; he may be the best position player in the BBA.Chris Mann also had a strong season at the plate.Neither Elmer Stickles nor Jose Hernandez is likely to be the glue guy here, though Elmer has the better chance.There are worse double play combinations than defensive whiz Mauro Soto and the consistent Eitor Vasconcellos, too, though the latter doesn’t seem like a starter, at least yet.We’ll see if Jesus Yan is any kind of answer there. The team is above average defensively and runs enough, if not efficiently. Madison’s star-heavy lineup supports their very pedestrian rotation and superior bullpen.The #1 starter here is Yorikane Miyamoto, who is more like a really good 1A/#2 type.Carter Morris is the riser here, and he had a strong debut season for the Wolves.He’s a good fit for the ballpark.Elijah Campos had a surprising 2048 season, but he’s never done anything like this before, so it’s hard to say what’s next for him.His makeup doesn’t yell “starting pitcher.”Jonathan Merritt can’t keep the ball in the ballpark, and Leonard Thornton is mediocre at best.The bullpen, though, is amazing; if you put Todd Stone and Senen Subandrio’s 132 innings together you get something like the best pitcher in baseball.Raphael Castagna is an excellent workhorse, and Brian Smith is better than he pitched last year. They won’t get much help from their farm, but Buwono Mainaky is a potential top prospect rotation guy who Madison swiped in the second round of the draft, so well done there.I really like Bin Wan more than the #138 prospect, too, especially as a switch-hitter.The Wolves also have a significant issue with Chris Mann becoming a free agent this year, especially if he wants eight figures a season to stay in Madison.If he’s cheaper, no problem I suspect.Other than that, not much to say:Madison’s 88 wins match exactly what they accomplished last year on the diamond.As before, my biggest problem with this team isn’t the team itself, but the upside of the team.Actually, I’m concerned that they may have achieved as much as they can do with this current team, and that it might not be enough, but a six-game gap isn’t quite as big as people consider it to be, and if someone falters they could be ready to pounce.   Louisville Sluggers Louisville’s #1 starters in 2047, James Browning left the team before last year.Theo Bourges, one of the brightest superstars in the BBA, wasn’t his usual dominant self last year.Sounds like the beginning of a dirge, right?Well, this dirge ended on a high note, with 99 wins and another spectacular season for the Sluggers, who received a huge season from rookie starting pitcher Jorge Diaz, a Sawyer Silk-worthy performance from Luis Mendoza, and other big performances.Louisville solidly led the Frick in runs scored last year, and while Lucio de la Cruz is now a San Antonio Outlaw the Sluggers should still have plenty of offense.Is their pitching staff for real, or can they be knocked off their 100-win perch? We’ve said it before, but this is infielder Luis Mendoza’s team now.Nobody in baseball is crossing his Mendoza line:23 WAR in three seasons and 28 in four seasons is spectacular, and he’s both a second and third baseman.Superstar center fielder Theo Bourges is 28 and had his worst season in 2048, and there is some cause for concern; scouts say Bourges may have lost some bat speed, though not enough to have hit .250 last year.We wouldn’t be surprised if this were the last season Semei Kwakou posted a 5 WAR, and the veteran outfielder led the FL with 115 RBI last year.Juan Medrano is good even when he’s not that good, and catcher Philitis Tsafento continued improving at age 26.The Sluggers signed Myeong-Kwan Kim, and his creakiness is okay on a team this deep since he’s still very talented.Thirteen players had at least 0.7 WAR last year on the FL’s top offense.The team is also solid defensively. Louisville’s pitching staff got a big boost last year from the development of starting pitcher Jorge Diaz, who finished second in the Joe Gillstrom Award voting with a 17-9, 3.90 mark last year.He’s just 20 years old.The rest of the rotation wasn’t inspiring, not bad, which is all the Sluggers need considering their offense.Edward Crutcher had a solid season, though he also hit an astonishing 27 batters last year.I think he could be better this year if he stops giving first base for free.Emanuele Mercati was less homer-prone than last year, when he allowed a league-worst 36, but he clearly isn’t a #1 starter.Zak Johnson is a big name but might not still have big game.We might see top-50 prospect Yoshii Takuda in the rotation this year, or maybe Greg Shaw.The Sluggers’ bullpen is better than their rotation, especially with the addition of Al Colbert this offseason, and is deep and talented. Louisville has a really solid farm system and drafts as well as anyone; top reliever Peter Sanders was a fourth round pick, for example.Their cap situation is fluid, as they have a ton of team and vesting options next year, so that’s not an issue.The bigger issue is their pitching staff, which relies heavily on their bullpen; not one single starting pitcher had an ERA better than league average last year. Admittedly, league average was absurd (3.83), but if we adjust for their ballpark we have to do that with their hitting too.They got swept by Yellow Springs after knocking out Chicago in the Geoghegan, and that might be a fair target for this year.  Nashville Bluebirds If you had asked me “What’s the most likely franchise to deal for Alaric?” last year, it might have still been Sacramento; their farm system has been steadily on the rise for years.But second on that list would have surely been Nashville, whose straddle might be about to pay off. The Bluebirds have everything I’d look for in a contender:superb young talent, a deep and talented rotation, in-house superstars and a primed young ace making relative peanuts.They took out Sacramento in the playoffs and came dangerously close to taking out Yellow Springs for their first pennant since they were the Halifax Hawks.Is this the “it” team in the BBA this year?Are we looking at a rising giant? It's hard to believe, but long-time rotation stalwart Chris Moran might not have a rotation spot in a couple of years; this is a pretty scary looking pitching staff.Very few teams have as much talent at the top of the rotation as Barney Lindsay (17-7, 2.48 ERA), Adrian Custello (12-8, 3.59) and Nobuhito Kan (9-5, 3.83).Manuel Garcia looks ready and could take a leap as early as this year.Steven Clayton isn’t ready, but he could be a huge star if he develops fully.Nashville also has one of the more established late games in the business, with Juan Cerda and Mitchell Purssell highlighting a good bullpen that also includes Robinson Valdez and Dean Stranaghan. While not quite as imposing as the pitching staff, Nashville’s lineup is also probably better than their ninth place finish last year. Tony Frost, long the headliner here, is now also the reigning FL Sawyer Silk Award winner.He’ll fall back but he’s a superstar.Speaking of superstars, Dennis French no longer is one, but re-signing him to a four year deal is unlikely to be a bad move.Neither Martin Hemming nor Ronnie Hubbard repeated their incredible 2047 seasons (Hemming couldn’t have:he hit .430 in 43 games); both players might be better than they played last year.The fact that I’ve gotten this far without talking about Alberto Rodriguez, at one time the best catcher in the BBA, should tell you a lot; Rodriguez is still holding off former #8 overall pick Dave Butler for now, but maybe not for long.Nashville’s double play combination is good, and both Roberto Viramontas and Sammy McNeill had nice years.Odemar Lock is fine for his price tag, but he might not hold off top prospect Wafid Bishr all year.The team is deep and talented offensively and could improve this year. Nashville also might have the top farm system in the game.You’ve already heard Bishr and Clayton’s names, but the team also has two outstanding catcher prospects and double digit prospects in the top 200 (average would be 6).Even the guys who don’t make the top 200 are people like Lou Tinter, Ollie Lowry, and Franklin Badger, legit major league prospects. Their cap situation isn’t good, admittedly:they’re super-tight against the cap, and next year’s cap number is $115 million with no obvious ways to bring that down unless they either trade or buy out Alberto Rodriguez.Really, the only thing that might hold back this contender is other contenders; have you seen their division?But Nashville’s going to be a good team for several years to come, and there’s plenty of excitement in Tennessee.  Yellow Springs Nine Elsewhere in this Media Guide you’re going to read that Yellow Springs has had the best regular-season run of all time.I felt last year was their year, that they were going to finally push the ball over the goal line, to have that elusive end zone dance.It wasn’t the first time they’ve fumbled on the one yard line, but it has to be among the most painful.That’s because while the Nine are still unmistakably, nearly unequally stacked, they lost eight WAR from their lineup in the form of Sawyer Slizz and Robert Chenoweth.Yellow Springs might not even need to replace them if they’re giving up 3.4 runs per game, but what if the losses of Al Colbert and Dean Stranghan are bigger than we think? The Nine were solidly in the first tier offensively last year, though that was with Slizz and the surprising Chenoweth.Usually they’ve been in the second tier, and they may find themselves there again this year.The team is still led by the indomitable Dong-Po Thum, who continues to be simply the best middle infielder in baseball.Arvin Duggan did bounce back last year, and we’re just going to assume he’s there.Rex Foster played just 100 spectacular games last year:he’s amazing when he’s standing upright.Brett Powers showed off his Brett powers last year.Nazeeh Ragheb looked good offensively last year in a late season callup and looks like a young Myeong-Kwan Kim.In the Rube Goldberg machine that is Yellow Springs, right now they have rookie top prospect Banger Dan in the cleanup spot, which feels optimistic.The team is very good defensively up the middle, though potentially weak at the corner outfield spots.in other places. Of course, their pitching is still absurd even with the loss of two bullpen stalwarts.Carlos Valle is still the leader of this staff at this point, and he was spectacular in half a season last year before going out with an elbow injury.It would be difficult to find a more impressive 2-3 than Dave Lee and Antonio Hernandez, the former of which is a superstar in his own right (68 wins in the last four seasons with 20 WAR) and the latter a Joe Gillstrom Award winner in likely around half of BBA seasons, but not last year.Throw in Jerry Borque and a hopefully somewhat revitalized Loan Duval and that’s a huge rotation.Edgardo Mota is also a huge pitching prospect who could perhaps make his debut this year, or perhaps not.The Yellow Springs bullpen really isn’t what it’s been without Colbert and Stranghan, but it is led capably by Derrick Chaney, and the team is counting on a group of young arms like Rodney Keeley, Philippe Dumont, and Slawomir Trzcinski to help stabilize the group.If history is any guide, they will. As good as Yellow Springs looked last year, that’s as much as I think they’ve fallen off this season.There are cracks forming in the foundation.And we have to ask ourselves some tough questions:what if a 31-year old Thum, for example, merely posts a .826 OPS like he did in 2046?What if Banger Dan is just okay as a rookie?If Foster plays 50 games instead of 100?I could keep going, but the point is made:this is not such a surefire lock as it’s been in the past.Their starting pitching will carry them, but we have no idea how good their bullpen is for once, and I could see this team finishing with as few as 85 wins and missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade.Probably not though.And maybe they make a move: their farm is great. Omaha Cyclones Emilio Morales is now the all-time Home Run King, and even carrying his sub-replacement production didn’t deter the Cyclones from a top-four offensive finish and another playoff spot.He was a part time player last year and we expect that to be even less often this year as potential superstar third baseman Malik bin Mazin appears ready to become one of the league’s premier right handed batsmen.Justin Niles made headlines last year by saying that Morales wouldn’t get his Hall of Fame vote, which makes one of us:the player right now with the best chance to knock off Morales (Roman Pagan, I think) has around a 20% chance to do so.Will one of the most talented teams in the BBA fall to squabbling? Omaha is always among the leaders in offense; last year was the first time in three years they didn’t finish first in the Frick League.They have a shot to do it again this year, and they have a big youth infusion to help them along.Sure, they still have Andre Ly, Orlando Ordonez, and Wilson Estrada to anchor the offense, and it’s possible that Ichiro Sugiyama is neither as mediocre as he looked last year or as incredible as he was winning the Joe Gillstrom but he’ll probably hit 25-30 homers from catcher.And the immortal infield robot James Wagner appears ready for his fourteenth season of rock-solid baseball.But this year, five-tool prospect Eric Wagner will be leading off.Rule 5 pick and potential on-base machine Luis Urbina will be starting at DH for sure.Then there’s Mazin, who looks potentially Amazin’.It will be interesting to see how these guys do, but I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that in the league’s best home run park, well.The team is just okay defensively, but they should hit again. Omaha also has one of the more complete rotations in the BBA, and with the surprising addition of Gary Goodchild from the UMEBA, their cup runneth over.None of the starters were especially amazing last year, but Timo Dooley, Mike Alexander, Jorge Hernandez, Norio Hayashi, and rookie Rich Jacobs all traded within a 2.4-3.6 WAR range last year.Jacobs specifically was a revelation, as he allowed just twelve homers all season long while posting excellent advanced numbers, and as long as he stays healthy he should be a good producer.Omaha also has a good bullpen core with fireballing Francisco Hernandez, Renato Lacerda and Augate Balun doing nice late inning work. The Cyclones might get a little help from their farm this year if Manuel Torres develops, but they’re impatiently waiting on Takashi Nakamura to fully develop.However, there’s probably not a lot coming that’s not already there.Speaking of which, the team is fully capped out to start the year, but they have some guys they can cut to get under – one of which might be Morales.Honestly, I think they’d be doing him a favor anyway; he’d get his salary and he’s got the record, and they’re barely going to use him this year.He has his title.In different circumstances he might retire on his own, but not here.As long as the Morales situation isn’t too much of a distraction, this is a well-built contender.   Chicago Black Sox Chicago was the forgotten power pitching staff last year, though in most years we’d have been singing their praises almost daily.The Black Sox actually led the BBA in ERA with a 3.06 mark last year, one of the best marks all time, and were still somehow overshadowed by the Yellow Springs, Sacramento, and Las Vegas pitching staffs.What’s a guy gotta do to get noticed?Maybe win a playoff round:Chicago got swept in the Geoghegan for their seventh straight first round playoff exit.Is this the year they break through or are they already fitting themselves with bridesmaid dresses? Everything’s always easier when you have an ace on a rookie contract, and the Black Sox still have Bennie Stuart on his first cheapish year of arbitration.Stuart (241 innings, 266 strikeouts, 169 hits, plus a 15-9 record and 2.35 ERA) was a monster last year, even if advanced stats don’t love him as much as fans do.He led Chicago to a third-place finish in one of the lowest-scoring years on record.Chicago got a huge year out of Jose Arellano, and Jim Wilkinson continues to show why he was the centerpiece in the Amayas Moelling trade.John McClain had a bad year, but he’ll probably bounce back; he’d been a solid rotation arm for quite some time before that.Chicago has a solid bullpen, and they’re hoping for repeat performances out of players like Phil Brown and Fernando Bruno. As for the offense, they are led by some familiar names:second baseman Rocky Wattson, third baseman/DH Tomas Duran, catcher Pedro Gomez, and – Virginia Rain.Virginia Rain?Rain’s 2048 season has to go down as one of the biggest out of nowhere fluke seasons of all time.In four major league seasons before last year, Rain had a negative career WAR, and Rain’s .270/.393/.472 slashline at age 28 could not be less likely to repeat.Dan Flores might be just as good, though, since all he did was hit league average to augment his Zimmer-level defense.Stewart Illingworth and Aarnoud Budding both had mediocre seasons last year, though Illingworth’s season was one of the best of his career.Budding’s was one of his worst, and he may be declining at age 29.Chicago quietly was sixth in offense last year and sixth in home runs, and if they repeat anything like that this season they’re going to the playoffs. Chicago is probably hoping that SP Wilson Milligan returns from an arm injury this season fully capable, as he’d make a logical fifth starter.Speaking of top prospects, Badr Isam continues working hard towards becoming one of the best middle infielders in the game, and Larry Barkin knows his days are numbered.Chicago had six players with more than 2 WAR last year and are having no trouble paying for them all, and doesn’t have any contracts worth worrying about, since even if Pedro Gomez opts out he can’t be a ton more money than he’s earning.The question is whether or not this is as good as they can do, and that’s an interesting question.Seven straight playoff appearances means they should have won at least one just by accident by now, so it just looks like one of those weird statistical anomalies.I think they’ll get chance #8 this year.  Des Moines Forty-one and counting.At this point I’m debating whether the Des Moines Kernels’ streak overtakes my own personal lifespan – I’m 43.There are some promising signs, like a big free agency crop where I like a couple of their signings, but those promising signs are paired with a team that’s lost a team that’s now lost 100 games in six of the last seven seasons, five straight.Actually, maybe the most impressive stat is that they have finished an average of 47 games back in the division race over those seven years – they play in the FL Heartland, which sent five out of the six teams to the playoffs.So Des Moines is doomed, but let’s consider how doomed. In a bubble, I really like what the Kernels did this offseason.On a pitching staff basically devoid of talent, the Kernels signed a legitimate star reliever in Francisco Salgado for very reasonable money, then signed a very interesting Manuel Camacho out of the UMEBA.Camacho (no relation quality reliever and long-time Kernel Daniel) might be more than meets the eye.And while their pitching staff does have three quality relievers including the previously mentioned Daniel Camacho and Bill Keil, that’s their highest end talent.Deron Alexander may have another gear in him, or he may be the pitcher who’s led the FL in walks allowed each of the past two years.Eye test says he’s a bust.Larry Fain and Timmy Karnes aren’t anyone’s top rotation starters.Rafael Rodriguez has never shown very much at all.We probably won’t see Jamie Barber this year, but he’s been working on his control in the minors and could be a better pitcher than they drafted, if he develops.The team finished 14thin runs allowed last year, and while it’s hard to see who they leapfrog I think they could be a BETTER 14th, if that means anything. The offense is also an vastly improved unit, and since the Kernels weren’t completely disrespectable in this department last year they might show some improvement here.The headliner is Chua-kah Yang, whose 45 homers led the FL in 2047 and followed up with 31 last year.He swings from the heels and is fun to watch.There are some obvious concerns about unproductive regulars like outfielders Norihisa Yokoyama and Pedro Mendoza, second baseman Marvin Isworth, and catcher Andy Elmer, but it is possible all of them improve.Youngsters Hasheem Makin and Felix Parreno might contribute this year; they are considered blue chips.The Des Moines lineup is very right handed and very power oriented; if it were my team and I were trying to win, I’d be trying to get that park better suited for righty hitters. Des Moines’ salary situation could be a lot better, and they’re paying a lot of money for players like Isworth, Karnes, and Yokoyama who right now aren’t helping them win at all.I don’t think they could unload them, either, but Isworth is for sure off the team in two years.In two years they will have cleared out their cap, and by 2052 the team should be primed and ready to spend.Des Moines’ farm is either good, or overrated as the #1 farm system in the game, depending on how you feel about underdeveloped prospects like Barber and catcher Sloth Fratelli, but there’s no question that there’s talent there.I think Des Moines might be looking at the other side of 100 losses this year if they play their kids, though there’s still no chance that they’re going to rise high enough to contend. Welcome to the BBA’s favorite punching bag. Come in, rest your feet, nobody expects you to be a winner here. It’s all very safe. Even if you’re a little good here, we have a frontrunner already: Sacramento won 111 games last year, and despite the scoreboard reading that they’ve lost ground this offseason, they a) won the division by 30 games and b) picked up Mike Campbell and Alaric Wullenweber, which might replace almost everything they lost. So Sacramento is still the overwhelming favorite; I had them by double digits last year and it’s larger this year. Portland’s the headline here, and the Lumberjacks have a chance to jump up and steal a wild card from the big boys in the FL. They have a really good pitching staff and now have some combination of Vancouver’s offense and their own, and have banished the Wilson Andrade statue to a team that might appreciate him more. They might actually steal a wild card; it’s in the realm of possible outcomes. The rest of the teams don’t really have a shot. I’m buying into Valencia’s quest for respectability, but I don’t see a happy ending for them if they’re thinking postseason. San Fernando has a solid offense, and Long Beach has bits and pieces but nothing solid yet – give them time though. Seattle has the best chance in the BBA to rise up and win 95 games this year, simply because I have no goddamn clue. And Hawaii lost 92 games last year and I think that’s an optimistic total for 2049. We’re almost to the half-century. Does that make it more or less likely Sacramento wins this division by 50 games? Got me, but let the rebuilding and restructuring commence from others! frick league, pacific division Sacramento 102-60 Portland 88-74 Valencia 82-80 San Fernando 79-83 Vancouver 75-87 Long Beach 73-89 Seattle 65-97 Hawaii 61-101 Sacramento So there’s buzz and then there’s buzz like “The 111 win Sacramento Mad Popes puts a dagger in Hawaii by getting Alaric and Mike Campbell” type buzz, where “fever pitch” isn’t just Alaric’s blistering fastball. Sacramento got taken out last year by a strong Nashville team in the Doubleday, but Alaric could fix exactly what the team: someone to lean on, someone to win the big games, someone to throw three times in a seven-game series. Sacramento did lose some huge performers from last year, though the guys they got are huge. Hawaii could never put a good enough team around Alaric to win the big one. Is this match made for a Brewster? The Mad Popes had the #2 offense in the FL last year behind Louisville, but they’re unlikely to repeat the feat without first baseman Alejandro Ortiz (7.5 WAR) But the Mad Popes still had a good offense even without those stalwart players, and have some untapped potential. Mike Campbell is now the unquestioned leader of the offense, and he’s been amazing over the past few years. Ricardo Mendoza had a great and not unprecedented 2048, and he could repeat that season; the team is hoping he stays healthy at first base. Gonzalo Martinez was an extremely shrewd free agent signing; he’s revived his career in Sacramento. The Mad Popes will likely get a full season from Okyay Nisanci, and considering he had an OPS 50% better than league average in 42 starts last year, the sky is the limit for the Turkish two-way outfielder. Francisco Arredondo is still here and still in his prime, or so it seems. Sacramento appears to be starting 2047 second rounder Jay Pochin at catcher, one of my favorite draft picks over the past few years. Alaric would be the foundation for any pitching staff, but Sacramento led the BBA in runs allowed last year. They also signed Francisco Franco, which in some offseasons could have been the biggest pitching acquisition by any team. With Marvin Winston, Matt McCartney, Warren Moore, and very exciting rookie Dylan Wonnocott, the Mad Popes have more starting pitching than they can even use. They will definitely miss Keijo Reini; Athens backed up the money truck for him this offseason, and no BBA team was going to pay him $15 million a year. But they still have the ethereal Shawn Huber, and while they don’t have anyone in there as spectacular as Reini the Mad Popes still have a deep and talented bullpen. This year’s version of the Mad Popes might not be the 111-win behemoth we had last year, but they might be better situated to win in the playoffs. A rotation of Alaric-Franco-Winston is very playoff ready, and they have enough rotation depth to pepper in some players. They also didn’t give up the core of their spectacular farm system, which for my dollar might be the best in the BBA, and not just Joe King. They also have no serious salary issues, and a ton of organizational depth. Portland did improve, but Sacramento won this division by 30 games last year and I have trouble believing that they’re going to fall far enough to lose it. Or very much at all. San Fernando Someone had to be on the other side of the Alaric trade. After giving up walking injury risk Atmo Ananas for Alaric, the San Fernando Bears swapped him out for five players that could potentially rebuild their franchise all by themselves. That said, even with 120 innings of Alaric, the Bears weren’t particularly inspiring on either side of the diamond, and while their offense might have overwhelmingly improved with the Alaric trade, it’s yet to be seen whether the new-look Bears will return to their glory days when they were leading the FL in offense. Was trading for, then trading away the league’s best pitcher enough to make the Bears whole again? The Bears’ offense is their calling card, and adding outfielder Wasim Ala’, infielder Marcello Custello, and catcher Farid bin Mubarak to the team in the Alaric deal probably won’t change the way they do business but really will help their lineup continuity. Custello will probably start at second base across from long-time Bears star Quinn Richardson, and Ala’ probably takes over from Andrew MacColl in center field. The headliner in the offense is Angel Gonzalez, who has been one of the best players in the BBA since joining San Fernando and will have a date with the Hall of Fame if he keeps this up for sure. The Bears play defense well, and they run as well as anyone in the league. Given the additions, they may move back into the first tier of offenses this season. Unfortunately, their pitching staff is unlikely to do the same, though San Fernando’s pitching staff was solidly at the bottom of the second tier last year, partially propped up by their solid defense. Just two holdovers from last year posted at least 1 WAR, and just one of them, Jorge Moreno, is likely to do anything particularly special this year. Moreno was a hard luck 11-12 last year but posted a 3.27 ERA and his second consecutive four WAR season. The other, Gusby Pinkerton, has proven to be a solid workhorse. The Bears’ best chance for a rising pitching star is Ramon Gonzalez, who at age 22 already has four years of major league experience and quite a bit of success so far in the bullpen. He could be a good starting pitcher. Neither Kurt Hanson nor Peter Roop is likely to do anything much, and neither Frits Brinson nor Chad Keever was much to write home about last year in the bullpen, so they’ll be mostly relying on the offense this year. San Fernando is not likely to get any help at all from their minor league system this year, as they have literally no players left in the minors in the top 200 overall, and while they have some cap space they’ll have to go bargain hunting, like they’ve tried to do with Gilberto Falchonelli. Their offense would have to jump into the top tier for them to contend this year, and with so many outstanding teams out there it’s not likely to happen, but there’s no reason they couldn’t finish close to .500 again. Portland Never underestimate the words “motivated sellers.” The Portland Lumberjacks took advantage of a fire sale in Vancouver, and while the early results are that the deal might have worked out for both teams, the offensively-challenged Lumberjacks may have created an offense on the backs of two of the league’s best outfielders to go with one of the league’s best young pitching staffs. While this might admittedly be one of the most overrated offenses I’ve ever seen, the fact is that the scouts love this team and are firm believers in a Portland surge. How much, if at all, did the Lumberjacks improve since the beginning of last season? If you had told me in 2046 that your top three hitters were Ernest McBride, Jeffrey Smith, and Fernando Castillo, I’d have asked you what you did while setting and forgetting your 100 win team. Also, those guys are still really good, though they might not be superstars anymore. Another blast from the past: Alex Ramirez, who was absolute fire last year at age 33. Other than Ramirez, the best of all of them was outfielder Wilson Alomar, who bounced back from two years in the weeds to post a 4 WAR season. Maybe this star-studded lineup is what Ricardo Yanez needs to break out finally, but last year was by far the most at-bats in his career and he’s never done much. Jorge Lopez and Jorge Lugo haven’t had a lot of success offensively, but they might be better than they’ve played lately. They shouldn’t be held back by the ballpark, which is actually fairly neutral; that’s just how poor the Portland offense has been. With that in mind, let’s consider for a second just how good Portland’s pitching was last year: their 3.8 runs allowed and 3.45 team ERA both rated fifth in the league, and it was their second straight year allowing less than four runs per game. Their rotation is absolutely fantastic: Ken Sparks is a legitimate #1 starter and Felix Vidaca won a well-deserved Joe Gillstrom Award last year. Really, all five of Portland’s starting pitchers were really good: Steve Warren threw 190 solid innings, lefty Chris Thompson was good in 150 innings, and rookie Randolph Marable was really good after being called up. Their pitching was so good they could ship out Frank Walbourne to Vancouver and they still have too much rotation depth: Rafael Gomez looks like a potential monster, soon, and even players like Antonio Garcia and Otto Bowness don’t look bad. The Lumberjacks lean heavily on superstar reliever Lorenzo de’ Medici in the bullpen, and got a good rookie year out of Xuan Ngo; the staff isn’t deep, though. Portland still has some underrated players on the farm like Jiao-long Ma and last year’s #5 overall Tynan Potter, who I thought was the #1 pick in the draft last year (but who has since lumped somewhat). But the future is now for the Lumberjacks, who have some concerning contracts expiring at the end of the year (Jeffrey Smith, de’ Medici) and some team options and rising arbitration contracts for 2050. So there should be a little bit of urgency for the team this year. Good news is that they’re taking this seriously: this is the best Portland team by far in the ten-year history of the franchise, and I think last year’s winning record is a good floor for them, even if I’m still not sure they have the horses to make the playoffs in a crowded playoff picture. Seattle Storm Perhaps there is something to the rumor that Pedro Diaz is secretly siphoning the life force of the Seattle Storm for his own dark ends, because the solid shortstop has been very special over the past two years. It’s safe to say that nobody else was last year, and with one of the worst pitching staffs in the BBA and team star Alexander Julyan playing just 41 games, the Storm stumbled to 100 losses in 2048. This once-unpredictable franchise who bounced between winning records and 95-loss seasons may now start to become predictable. It’s hard for me to root against a team that has that many of my former first round picks, but it’s going to be a difficult climb for them to get back to respectability. Do the Storm have another bizarre bounceback in them? The Storm used to run on their elite starting pitching, but not anymore: the Storm will have the dubious distinction of being dead last in pitching last year, even behind Twin Cities. Stalwart Hector Marquez wasn’t actually too bad last year, but he has lost a ton since the beginning of 2048, and scouts project he is now is now in the business of collecting paychecks and stealing money. The best holdover starter from last year might be Malcom Jolly, who somehow managed a 12-8 record for the team. I’m intrigued by fragile Len Conboy, who looked better last year in the bullpen. Neither Seth Harris nor John Reed is exciting, and prospect Reynaldo Torres might be a year away. The Storm still have quite a few hard throwers in the pen, as is their trademark, but they’re largely on the lower end of the skill scale. The offense wasn’t that bad last year, though, even without Julyan. The aforementioned Diaz really has been an elite leadoff man the last two years. Seattle replaced Aires Penharanda with free agent signing Valentin Fitas for less money, which should help the offense while being a smack in the teeth to the defense. Third baseman Alejandro Cordova continues to be a solid regular, and second baseman Eric Jones often is, but just as often not. Taro Kudo finally broke through last year…for 1.2 WAR. There’s not a ton of youth or upside here, and it’s not a great offense, but it’s a lot better than their pitching. I don’t see how Seattle bounces back, especially in a league where even some of their own division members are improving. They do have a couple of prospects I like, but overall their farm isn’t overly impressive. The team has made it into the top six picks, and from that perch I like their future. Their present is likely to be murky at best. Oh, and you’re welcome: just me saying this means that Seattle will have at least 85 wins. Long Beach Surfers The Long Beach Surfers have two future Hall of Famers they’re running out there every day in their starting lineup. Unfortunately, those players are 38-year old Hsin Mei and 40-year old Mark Simpson, who, admittedly, are still good ballplayers. The team also added center fielder Todd Rice this offseason, one of the top free agents on the market. There’s a glimmer of a pitching staff behind Satan’s Whelp, too, as top prospect Sam Rutgers gets closer. It seems very far-fetched that this franchise can rise up high enough this year to be a contender with the Heartland juggernauts, but is there hope here, and if not, is there some time horizon where they might get back to contending? Only Twin Cities finished worse than Long Beach offensively last year, so buckle up. Simpson has said he wants to play forever, but maybe he’ll just play until he breaks the all-time record for walks; he’s 261 behind Cricket Puckett, and right now he’s fifth with a reasonable shot at fourth this year. He’s also not a trivial signing: he was ninth in WAR among qualifying or near qualifying 1B last year. Neither is Rice, whose 4.1 WAR last year has been typical of his career. I have my doubts about 3B Juan Hernandez, but he’s a solid looking player. Mei should be a solid catcher again. DH Mike O’Hanly will probably be better this year, but he’s not a special player. The Surfers are also weak defensively and don’t run well. The poor offense means that whatever efforts the pitching staff put out there are likely to be largely wasted. Danya Tchekanov is still amazing, one of the few true #1 starters in the BBA. He’s probably tired of going 12-10, his career average season is 13-9 in ten seasons. Ernesto Delgado easily had his best season and ERA last year; he was considered one of those players advanced stats loves. After all this time, Del Willis has officially reached bust status as a starter, though I suspect he’d be a heckuva reliever. Sam Rutgers is ready if they want to use him, and he had an excellent season in AAA. Long Beach has one of the premier relievers in the league in Luis Manuel Rodriguez, who is a startling workhorse, and two good support guys in Angel Hernandez and Jose Luna. The Surfers generally draft well and have done well in the draft lately with three top 100 prospects, with Rutgers and shortstop Steveland Morris being the most likely immediate contributors. If they wanted to go into full rebuild mode, they have some good contracts to trade (Rodriguez, Ernesto Delgado) and could trade Tchekanov, though his contract might be hard to move without some salary retention (but would be extra-easy to move with some). Their salary structure frees up a little in 2051, so if they’ve managed to build a contender by that point they could make some moves. At this point they’re mucking along, but that could change soon. Valencia Stars It’s as I always say: a little success can be a dangerous thing. A lot of success usually isn’t; at that point your legacy is set. No success keeps you hungry. But a little success can make you rabid, and Gold Rush Fever appears to be what’s happening in Valencia. The timing is questionable; the division isn’t really up for discussion, they’re going to have to knock off basically a quintet of 90 win teams to contend, and while there are a lot of reasons to believe that this is a team on the rise, they may be trying to rise too quickly for their own good. Sometimes when you go panning for gold, you just get eaten by a bear. With some rebuilding done and a superstar catcher in the house, (cheese alert) are the Stars aligned or are they destined to fall? Let’s consider the offense with Klooster, who has not been “good for a catcher” but just plain good lately. Klooster also had two very uninspiring years before 2047 and is fragile, so we’ll see. Outside of Klooster, who hasn’t played in Valencia yet, this is basically the All-Overrated team. Kenan Reis is only a consistent 4.5 WAR player in his dreams. Frederick Brisset is the likely best offensive player outside of Klooster, and he has 58 homers and 7 WAR over the past two seasons while playing stellar defense; one gets the sense he’s a 5 WAR player suffering through Valencia. Juan Mateo is a solid first baseman, but he needs a caddy and hasn’t been dominant. Gene Meade has a career WAR of -0.5, so why do the scouts like him so much? Thomas Jefferson posted a .340 OBP in 42 starts last year as a middle infielder; he might be underrated. Lee Stone was straight-up good last year. The team is somewhat marginal defensively and doesn’t run, not even Brisset who can run but doesn’t. Their rotation might be a little underrated, or at least Ken Arroyo is: when Arroyo was drafted I pointed out that he was perfect for their ballpark, and he has been. Micheal Dixon was lucky last year, but he was good, too, and does have excellent stuff. Consistent, veteran starter Greg Jackson was even luckier, as the lefty cut his home run rate in half. Scouts say Jacob Smiley has taken a leap of some sort, though we haven’t seen the results of it yet. Carlton Day looked really good in three starts last year. The Stars also have a deep and talented bullpen led by John Olson and, amusingly, Martin Roman, among others. So, let’s consider the Klooster trade. If he works, you’ve gotten a $12 million a year catcher who’s at the top of his game, but you’re still missing most of a consistent offense. If he doesn’t work, or gets hurt, you’ve given up two top pitching prospects (even if both are mildly flawed) in a very uncritical way. And what do I mean by uncritical? There are dozens of players one could have gotten for those two prospects, but Valencia chose a fragile 30 year old catcher, and he’s not Aaron Haney. It’s a deal Valencia could still win, but for them to win this deal they’ll have to make the playoffs. They’re not going to make the playoffs unless everything sets up just right for them, because they’re going to need consistency from their top surprises from last year. Over the last four years, just one FL team has made the playoffs with less than 90 wins. Valencia may be looking to become the second one. Hawaii Tropics Hey, you know that fall we predicted last year for Hawaii? It wasn’t Olo'upena Falls, but surely the team morphed from a potential contender to a noncontender. Alaric and Mike Campbell, arguably the two greatest players in franchise history are both, well, history. Worse yet, they’re both Sacramento Mad Popes. Hawaii does have some interesting young talent, but you don’t lose two players like Campbell and Alaric and get better unless you are really stacked, and Hawaii actually won four more games than their Pythagorean record last year. They’re not Twin Cities, but is 92 wins the lowest Hawaii will go? The cap purge has almost finished, though they’re still stuck with five more years and $110 million of Ron Shiplack, who they are unlikely to be able to trade. He’s the face of the franchise now. Shiplack can play, but not $22 million worth. RF Manny Garcia can’t, and they’ll be thrilled to get rid of him. At this point it’s safe to call Bronx Cortez a bust, even if he looked semi=competent last year outside of his pathetic .189 batting average and 2:1 AB to K rate. Oh, and, um, those are three of the top six performers on the offense. Adhyapayana Mehta might be better this year, but it’s hard to see this low-power, low-walk infielder getting much beyond 2 WAR. Hawaii had the worst OPS among major league offenses last year (I’m not including Twin Cities) and other than the fact that they run there’s no reason they couldn’t finish 15th this year. Hawaii’s pitcher room has also been cleaned out. Alaric is gone, and so is Zak Johnson, who wasn’t really doing the job anyway. Maup Manshert is still here, but he is literally it as far as the productive holdovers go; he should really be traded to someone, especially since he’s a really good pitcher. Atmo Ananas looks like a walking infirmary so far in his career, but he’s loaded with talent if he can stay on the field. That would be a good top two. Yacker Wiley probably gets a shot this year, but he’s league average at best. The team might put top prospects Daruna Maddukuri and Semih Gurani in the rotation at some point this year; both are really interesting young starters with quite a bit of talent and mostly ready. I’d give them high minors experience this year, then roll them out there when they might have a chance in 2050. The bullpen is also shot; other than the solid Rich Martinez, there’s not much there. The Tropics could also choose to roll out Rhys Brickell this season if they wanted. Brickell doesn’t have that much more to prove in the minors, though giving him a full season of AAA might not be terrible either. Hawaii’s long-term cap situation is such that they’ll probably start making money this year, and in a couple years should be financially solid, especially if – as expected – Alaric opts out after this season and they’re off the hook for $30 million of dead money. They’re not in as bad a position as we might think: they can maybe build around the four starting pitchers mentioned above, Shiplack is a good catcher, and maybe they can build an offense. Right now, this team is just barely viable both on offense and on the pitching staff, and 92 wins might seem like a panacea after this season. Vancouver Mounties Vancouver really shifted things around. It’s probably just exactly what the franchise needed, but, golly, watching Jeffrey Smith and Fernando Castillo fly out the door at the same time was traumatic for long-time Mounties’ fans. There are some interesting thing about what happened afterward, though: Wilson Andrade bounced back from a year and a half in the wilderness, Frank Walbourne looked better, and they did get some flexibility in their cap – even more if Andrade and shortstop Luis Pena both opt out. Is the program working, and what’s on the field now? Andrade appeared to be completely lost in Portland, but found his way again in Vancouver. The Mounties’ second baseman popped back up to post maybe his best numbers since his Sawyer Silk season in 2044. It’s not shocking: Andrade’s contact/doubles bat is tailor-made for Vancouver. Francisco Martinez has officially shrugged off all concerns they had about him as a rookie; he’s one of the BBA’s best first basemen. Carlos Arroyo has posted numbers at every level, and he might be fine in the majors if he makes decent contact. John Hopkins was unstoppable at AA last year, and while he’s bad defensively he might hit. Davenport Hinkle is an excellent two-way catching prospect, though he’s turning into a late bloomer. The rest of their lineup is dubious at best offensively, though Luis Pena is still one of the league’s most impressive defensive 6s and can still steal a base in the rare instances he finds himself on first. While their offense might be suspect, Vancouver’s pitching has improved to the point where we might see them finish in the top half. Phil Cole absolutely wrecked last year after being liberated from El Paso. Rookie Jose Barron impressed in half a year of hurling; I’ve always liked him. Frank Walbourne is probably what he’s been so far in his career, a consistent 3/4 starter. I like Ivan Ruiz a bit, but he’ll have to keep the ball in the ballpark. Vancouver’s bullpen is modestly talented, but lost a ton of talent this offseason. Shinsaku Ine should help with some of the innings unless they try him in the rotation again; he looks like a nice reliever. Vancouver’s farm isn’t broke, either: Hinkle should be at least fine as is, and we’ve already mentioned Hopkins and Arroyo, who might both help the team this year. Their other top prospect is a hard thrower whose changeup hasn’t come in at age 22, so it’s a bit overrated too. Their cap situation is fine, but they might not be able to clear serious space until 2051. I think they’re more or less where they were last year: they’re good enough to play with some of the better teams in the league, but not talented enough to knock them out of the playoffs. They had 75 wins last year and that’s probably about right. 2049 Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers Preview 2048 record: 81-81, 3rd place in Burt League STARTING PITCHERS: Edwin Harney pitched in bad luck last year; he was much better than his 11-13 record indicated. Hsuang-Tsung Xu is a very solid guy; no flash, but he gives you a chance to win every time he takes the mound. Leon Ludeman added 2.9 WAR; I think he’s due for a breakout year. Past those three, you have a cast of thousands, including former #1 overall pick Mokichi Yamamoto. (Personal note: I drafted a lot of these guys when I was running Jerusalem, and it does my old heart good to see them do well.) BULLPEN: Jan Chmelyk, he of the 14-rated stuff, was nails as the Hammer closer last year, and Adrian Kraft was just as good in a set-up role. Cyrille Santorio and Brett Vanderven will support them, along with the losers of the casting call for fourth and fifth starters. It would be good if Manuel Andres could slot in as a situational lefty. CATCHER: At age 29, Baden Dutton is entering his ninth year as Jerusalem catcher. He was a bit off last year, but no cause for alarm. Jose Barajas hit well in AAA, earning him the backup job. INFIELD: 1B Adam Backhouse just turned 27, and he’s already hit 308 homers in UMEBA. He’s making a bunch of money, and he’s worth every penny. Ab Elders’ fine middle infield glove and .270 batting average make him a welcome addition to any lineup. He’ll likely play second, with gloveman Juan Castillo at short. Castillo is supposed to have a bit of power, but so far…not so much. Third baseman Felipe Soto is 28, so he’s probably as good as he’s going to be. Which is not so good. OUTFIELD/DH: Jose Figueroa is a consistent 3 to 4 WAR guy in left; that’ll do. CF Tyler Pavey was really good in ’47, and really meh in ’48. Hammer management is hoping for a rebound year. If Backhouse is star #1 on the Hammers, Dane Licht is 1A; he’s a doubles machine. He’s currently listed as the DH, but a move to RF might be in the cards, allowing a guy like Dylan Malloch to get some reps at DH. BIGGEST QUESTION: Will the left side of the infield stand in the way of this team’s destiny, which would seem to be at least a Burt League title? 2049 Baghdad Kings Preview 2048 record: 77-85, 4th place in Burt League STARTING PITCHERS: Stanley Kowalski, at the tender age of 22, looms as the ace here; he’s never really had a bad season at any level. Past him…well, it’s a mixed bag. Cesar Macias had a nice rookie year, and Hector Granados might be okay if he can stay healthy. Tai Minh has stuff that scouts love, but lack of movement that hitters love even more. Namik Vedat had a decent season last year, but the years before that lead one to skepticism. Ubbe Bakboord has the opposite issue: a decent history but a shaky 2048. BULLPEN: Things are better here. Elliot Woodger is the incumbent closer, and he’s a good one. Jason Hone arrives from BBA Rockville, and should be a key piece. Lefty Allen Stallard figures here if he doesn’t get the call to join the beleaguered rotation. Another BBA exile is Miguel Angel Garza, but how much he has left in the tank is an open question. CATCHER: It’s defense first here, with veteran John Todd and rookie Pat Newell. Whoever wins the job will be batting at or near the bottom of the order, for sure. INFIELD: Miguel Angel Perales (Baghdad has a surfeit of players named “Miguel Angel”) is a 30-homer guy at 1B, and that’s always nice. At second, Danny Glatz came over from Jerusalem; he’s a solid vet with no one outstanding characteristic. Third baseman Bert Cleaver brings a power bat and a decent glove every day; he could stand to get on base a bit more. Dong-Kyoon Park probably gets first call at short; unlike most BBA shortstops, he can hit; at least he has in the minors. His glove could be an issue. OUTFIELD/DH: CF Zephyr Orphanides has talent that makes scouts swoon. Nit-pickers may carp about his work ethic, but the man gets results in a big way. Gui Jen is a plus in left, but RF may be up in the air. Wesley Johnson is an all-or-nothing guy; 27 homers last year but only a .186 batting average. Carlos Sanchez is getting some infield reps in spring training, but he might more likely end up pushing Johnson. DH Otto Altaner is a high-BA guy with middling power. BIGGEST QUESTION: Can Park field shortstop well enough to keep his bat in the lineup? He’ll get every chance; there’s not much behind him except utility man Creegan Corney. 2049 Manama Pearls Preview 2048 record: 82-80, 4th place in Burt League STARTING PITCHING: Rick Clarijs worked out of the pen in his Manama debut last year, but his destiny would seem to lie at the front of the rotation. Nothing in Edgar Sosa’s history indicated that his 3.45 ERA in 2048 was a thing, but nevertheless it happened. Wayne Mawle has bounced between AAA and the bigs the last two years, but he’s pitched pretty well at both places. Damian Theophanous came over from Jerusalem last year and was solid, if unspectacular. Armando Rodriguez would appear to have a slight edge over Jin-Suk Im for the last spot in the rotation. BULLPEN: Santiago Zuniga’s performance was headed in the wrong direction as a starter; the Pearls are trying him as a closer this spring. Manama has brought more than 20 relief pitchers to spring training trying to figure out some answers here; handicapping them all is a job for someone with more patience than I. The guess here is that several members of the pen aren’t in the organization as of this writing. CATCHER: Angel Martinez may not be the best receiver, but he hits for average; with the dearth of catching talent around the league, that’s enough. Leonardo Corral brings a decent bat, a good glove, and fine intangibles to the backup slot. INFIELD: Veteran Jack Nichols will try to hold off rookie Michael Pedarzolli at first. A big spring from Pedarzolli could move Nichols to 2B, but he’d be blocked there by Mike England, who had a good UMEBA debut after a lengthy BBA career. Socrates Kazantziakis is at shortstop, and he ain’t going anywhere; a .303 average and wonderful glove skills guarantee you some job security. 3B Kinfu Lugono has a bad attitude, but shows enough on the field that management is willing to put up with it. OUTFIELD/DH: LF Joshua Koka’s stats have declined over the last three years, but he’s making a ton of money, so he’ll get every chance to right the ship. Patrick Strolz is a center fielder in name only; he “strolz” after balls he should run after. What he is, is a helluva hitter; he’d be a perfect DH if there was a better option in center. Taylor Barfoot is a terrific all-around player; he could play right or left and never has a bad season. The reserves are uninspiring. The DH spot is currently held by Cris Martinez; he has 20-plus home run power, but not much else to recommend him. BIGGEST QUESTION: Will the GM be able to sort through the cast of thousands he’s assembled and come up with an actual bullpen? 2049 Beirut Cedars Preview 2048 record: 95-67, 1st place in Burt League STARTING PITCHERS: This is a group that a number of Brewster franchises have reason to envy. Dmitr Zhivlyuk regressed a bit from his stellar 2047, but he’s still someone you’d be proud to run out there every fifth day. His off year allowed David Diaz to step into the staff ace role, and boy did he ever: 14-1, with a 1.06 WHIP. 35-year-old Duane Coutts defied Father Time by posting a 17-3 record with a 2.44 ERA. Juan Guzman jumped to the UMEBA straight from A ball and held his own. The #5 starter is currently changeup artist Alejandro Cruz. BULLPEN: Move along quickly folks; not much to see here. Masaru Yokota is the only long-term bullpen fixture, and he’s coming off a down year. Surplus starters Boris Milatovic and Juan Morales will probably join him, unless they’re needed in the rotation. David Prigent and some other young arms to be named later will fill out the staff. CATCHER: Munuto Watanabe is the only catcher in camp, and he’s nursing a shoulder separation. Nobody else currently under contract is really a viable option, so by the time you read this, expect a new name or two on the Cedars roster at this spot. INFIELD: Marco Acheson doesn’t hit for traditional 1B-type power, but his contact skills and great eye make him a useful player. 2B Dave Boyd finally made the bigs in his late 20s; he needs to step it up if he’s going to stay there. A pair of rookies may man the left side of the infield; Isei Sakai brings a well-rounded skill set to third base, while Angel Lopez is strictly a glove guy. In-Sik Park and Nicolai Reshetkov represent insurance in case the rookies don’t pan out. OUTFIELD/DH: CF Jamie Agnew strikes out a lot for a leadoff hitter; in fact, he strikes out a lot for a person. He has other virtues, though. LF Hyeon-Uk Hong is the bright light of the outfield; 4.5 WAR last year. I’m guessing that Stewart Cannell and Eligio Cosmo will fall into a platoon arrangement in right. Reshetkov is listed as the DH; I bet the Beirut GM is open to other options that may present themselves. BIGGEST QUESTION: Can a decent bullpen be constructed out of the parts available? And with their rotation, do they even need a bullpen? 2049 Riyadh Red Crescents Preview 2048 record: 55-107, 5th place in Burt League STARTING PITCHING: The big news here is rookie Umar Dogar. He’s being counted on as a key piece in the rotation, and nothing he’s done this spring has changed anyone’s mind about the brightness of his future. Past him, it’s more new blood. Romeu Tameiro arrives from the BBA where he pitched well in limited opportunities last year. Angel Romero has pitched mostly in Vancouver, and mostly not so well. Then there’s Karel Beerens and Andres Hernandez, both of whom have pretty much maxed out at AAA until this year. BULLPEN: Free agent acquisition Constantino Teixeira gets the first springtime shot as closer; he had a long career with Charm City back in the day, but has never pitched a lot of innings. Fernando Guerrero split 2048 between the Brewster and the UMEBA; he was just okay in both places. Jose Lima is listed as a reliever, but most of his history is as a starter, and the Red Crescents have needs there, so… Ricardo Quadrado is another guy who has traditionally started, but his 5.26 ERA last year might push him to the pen. Lefty Orlando Sanchez should play a part here too. CATCHER: Pablo Espinoza is currently listed as the starter here, but let’s not kid ourselves- this job will belong to the inimitable Diesel Dave eventually. Dave, like death and taxes, is inevitable. Espinoza is a fine receiver of the baseball, but come on… INFIELD: Umar Mutemi is currently listed as the starter (yes, the Red Crescents have two players named “Umar”). He jumped to the UMEBA straight from AA last year, and was okay, but one suspects that his listing is just one of those spring training things, and that once the bell rings first will be occupied by veteran Makai Sato. Similarly, Juan Luis Manuel is listed at second without much of a resume; it’s less clear who would take his place. Jerusalem export Isaac Emmott plays a nice shortstop and hits .250, so that’s…nice. My crystal ball is cloudy regarding third base; maybe Anastacio Guillen? Daryl Pris has come over from Jacksonville of the BBA to back up multiple positions. OUTFIELD/DH: Riyadh seems to be starting some guys in spring training to give them experience and to make some decisions, which is smart, but makes it hard to guess what their actual lineup will look like. I’m going to say at least that Vinnie Coalman will be in the outfield somewhere; he plays all three positions and posted a 3.0 WAR season a year ago. Beyond that, my best guess is some combination of guys like Juan Martinez, Jose Leyva, and Manchu Li. Michael Blankenship is currently listed as the DH, but his .647 OPS in the Brewster last season doesn’t indicate that his spot is set in stone. BIGGEST QUESTION: How many of the new starting pitchers will flame out, and if too many of them do, are enough replacements at hand? Athens Fighting Centaurs 2048 record: 92-70, 2nd place in Bancroft League 2048 recap: The Centaurs won the United Cup, and no other team even gave them much of a fight. Quinn Greene took home his second consecutive Position Player of the Year award, continuing to demonstrate that he’s the best player on the planet, posting career highs of 45 HR and 126 RBI. 2049 outlook: Athens’ offensive approach is based around two things: understanding their ballpark and hitting the crap out of the ball. Piraeus Park really favors lefty hitters, especially ones with power. Thus, the Fighting Centaurs build their lineup around Greene and designated hitter Sosa Seki, two lefties with pull tendencies, who were a big reason why this team led the UMEBA in home runs last season. Most of the rest of the hitters in Athens’ lineup are likewise either left-handed or bat switch, spelling a really tough time for right-handed pitching. First baseman Tsuyoshi Kobayashi hit 28 home runs of his own last season, and the ageless Rúbem Bordonhos continues to prove adequate at the plate, though he’s lost a couple steps on defense. Vinnie Youngberry also had an .882 OPS against righties, and he may wind up on the bench. This lineup is deep. Another name to keep an eye on is Pang Zhou, he had a 3.7 WAR season in AA last year, and looks ready for the bigs now. The problem is that he plays left field, which belongs to Greene. But if he keeps hitting, they’ll find a spot for him. So with such a stacked lineup, where do the Centaurs improve the team? Especially since they definitely want to take advantage of the extra budget while Greene is still cheap. Well they went shopping, and ended up landing the now-highest-paid player in the UMEBA. Keijo Reini, who just won his second Egan award in the BBA, agreed to a two-year contract to come to Athens. Reini, who has posted an ERA starting with “1” in each of the last four seasons, will be converted to a starter to act as Athens’ ace. “If we can have some of the best stuff in the game for 100 innings,” Athens figured, “why not have it for 200?” With Reini in the fold, the Centaurs’ rotation looks a lot more formidable. Euan Ring, who led the Bancroft in pitching WAR last season, has been very dependable for Athens, but has never screamed “ace”. He’ll slot in somewhere behind Reini as the staff’s sole southpaw. Young Rolf Reinhardt, who pitched well last season out of the bullpen, is also being groomed to start, and this might be his year to prove that he can. With the new rotation additions, they’ll also be able to use Felipe Méndez in the bullpen, which is where he really shone in limited time last season. The closer role is still up for grabs. After losing inconsistent closer Fernando Rangel to free agency, the latest report is that the equally inconsistent Steffan Gimseng has been awarded the job. Good thinking, though — if they won the United Cup with inconsistency in the ninth, why change what works? Still, we might end up seeing more of a “closer-by-committee” situation. If we know anything about Athens, it’s that they’ll throw anyone at any time — the clinching game of the United Cup was closed by Bryan Blanch, who had never before appeared in a regular-season game in the majors. There’s even more talent down on the farm. Mick Joo, the six-pitch wonder, had a strong season in Double-A last year. Athens will probably see how he adjusts to Triple-A, but we might see him called up before year’s end. 2049 prediction: 88-74. The big unknown is Reini, since he hasn’t started a game professionally in about five years. There may be a learning curve as he adapts to the new role, but he’ll be solid. I’ll say the Centaurs regress a bit, but still pull out a playoff spot when it’s all said and done. Bucharest Impalers 2048 record: 95-67, 1st place in Bancroft League 2048 recap: Bucharest continued to be the gold standard for UMEBA longevity, posting their tenth consecutive winning season. They went cold at the wrong time, however, and lost to Athens in the Round of Four. Still, the future in Bucharest looks very bright: left fielder Tadataka Yoshikawa won Rookie of the Year and has superstar potential. Manny Gómez, another of the team’s core of young outfielders, won a Great Glove and got an All-Star nod. 2049 outlook: The Impalers actually over-performed last year, exceeding their expected W-L record by 7 games. Such a large discrepancy would indicate they weren’t scoring and preventing runs as efficiently as a first-place team should have been, which may have played a role in their early postseason exit. So what’s different this year that’ll get them over the hump? First baseman Ricardo de Jesús also appears ready for his debut after a 4.0 WAR campaign last year in Luanda. He’s got one of the most impressive combinations of hitting ability and plate discipline we’ve seen in the UMEBA in a long time. Oh, and not to mention he stole 72 bases last year. Seventy-two! Jeremy Owbridge is also still around, in his final season before hitting free agency. Now 3 years removed from his MVP season, he can still play top-tier defense and get on base at an impressive clip. Jay Gamble is another old face, back with the Impalers after re-upping on a two-year extension. He’s coming off a Platinum Stick award, and is still one of the most consistent members of the offense. He may see more time at DH this season, with de Jesús installed at first. Some combination of the old guys and the new guys will get it done for Bucharest this year, that much is clear. What’s less clear is the pitching. The Impalers stumbled to the finish last season thanks to three of their starters turning ice-cold in September. Luis Pereira, Adam Barber and Ajanidha Praveen all limped into the postseason, and were essentially the reason why Bucharest’s season ended when it did. Changes had to be made. Yes, the rotation is still fronted by Owen Geddes and Neill Fenomore, so they’re in pretty good shape with those two guys. But Barber and Pereira may be relegated to bullpen roles for the time being. Praveen is still in the rotation, but he’ll be on a really short leash. Who fills out the rest of the rotation spots? Well, when you’re Bucharest, you’ll find yourself pretty rich with prospects. 23-year-old Alfonso Castillo (#46 UMEBA prospect) is pretty much a lock to make his UMEBA debut. We also might see Mariano Aguilar (#73), who has spent the last FOUR SEASONS in Triple-A being perfectly adequate. Such is life when you’re in Bucharest’s system. In the bullpen, Brendan Pollock is on the cusp of returning from his shoulder injury, but how he’ll perform after nearly a year away from the game is anyone’s guess. Luke Jones performed admirably in the closer role in Pollock’s absence, but probably isn’t a long-term solution. If they’re feeling adventurous, they could install prospect Simon Hammond in the ninth inning and let UMEBA hitters try to figure out how to deal with his mythical fastball, with which he struck out 11.3 batters per nine innings in Triple-A last season. 2049 prediction: 96-66. The rotation has some holes, but the Impalers have so much depth in prospects that they’ll be able to withstand any shortcomings. Cairo Pharaohs 2048 record: 82-80, tied for 3rd place in Bancroft League 2048 recap: The crowning glory for Cairo was their first winning season in franchise history, which has to be viewed a success despite missing the playoffs. They led the UMEBA in batting average (.292) and on-base percentage (.338). On top of that, there were a few notable accolades: David Guerra somehow won a Great Glove at 2B and a Platinum Stick at 3B. Catcher António Ruíz had a season for the ages, posting 4.5 WAR and finishing 2nd in the league in batting average (.343). 2049 outlook: Cairo was led by their offense last season, which was exceptional. But beyond just hitting well, they figured out how to play to their strengths and use their cavernous ballpark to their advantage. When you’re not going to hit a lot of home runs, you need to find another way to score. For Cairo, it’s stealing bases. They led the UMEBA in steals in 2048, as well as SB success rate (81.6%!), as they were only caught 35 times in 190 attempts. Their run game starts with Freddy Ayala and David Guerra. Usually batting 1-2 for the Pharaohs, they’ll be counted on to get on base and start the line moving. The pair of speedsters are annoying for pitchers, and very difficult to defend against. They get in scoring position frequently, setting up the “power” guys to drive them in with base hits, sac flies and the like. Catcher Ruíz, of course, is among those “power” guys, and although it’s not his calling card, the Pharaohs will be counting on him once again as one of the major run producers for the offense. Outfielder Juan Rocha will of course also be around to provide some pop, as Cairo is paying him $7.8 million this year to do so. Young Jae-hyung Chi will also provide a much-needed left-handed bat, expected to debut with the Pharaohs after hitting 18 HR in AAA last season. Cairo sports a new-look pitching rotation this year, after declining the option for previously de facto ace Johan Trojka. The new reality is that Cairo may have a full five-man rotation of guys better than Trojka now, so they were no longer in need of his services. Shea Valance will likely get the ball on Opening Day. He has finally found his groove as a starter, after a few rough developmental years and being constantly shuttled between rotation and bullpen. He posted career bests last season in BB/9 and K/9, and has demonstrated full command of his five-pitch repertoire. Han-i Kim, former first overall pick, will also get a full chance in the bigs, after his cup of coffee last year which saw him earn four wins in five starts with a 3.03 ERA. Chase Walter, Edwin Gilliam and Drees Geestman round out the starting five. Cairo also made a point to shore up the bullpen this winter, signing Jorge Martínez away from the BBA to be the new closer. They then snagged veteran Júlio Cuevas, who was previously with Baghdad, another dependable bullpen arm who will give them innings. They will also take a look at Rule 5 pick Carlos Campos, a righty who can touch 100 on the gun and also play the outfield on his off days. Baserunners in the Bancroft should be made aware not to test his outfield arm. 2049 prediction: 81-81. Considering so many players over-performed last season, I can’t see them gaining much ground on the division powerhouses, even if everything goes right. But we will still say this is an improvement, since it’ll be sole possession of third place. Mumbai Metro Stars 2048 record: 82-80, tied for 3rd place in Bancroft League 2048 recap: It’s funny how two teams in the Bancroft can end up with the exact same record, yet one of them be viewed a resounding success and the other an utter failure. Mumbai is the “failure” in this scenario, finishing the season tied for third in the standings with Cairo, missing the playoffs for the first time since before their 3-peat, and making us all wonder if it’s the end of an era. A few pieces from their championship years remained: Matthew Hewat had a career year and won the batting title. Ronald Eglinton won the ERA title. Closer Knox Sked won Reliever of the Year. 2049 outlook: The Metro Stars have never really operated with a superstar on offense; it’s always been more of a “full squad” situation. DH Kieran Filby led the UMEBA in on-base percentage last season, and he’ll once again be expected to be the catalyst. But does he have the heavy hitters behind him to drive him in? Mumbai did not pursue contract extension talks with Hugh Mangrouthormone after last year’s failed experiment, and instead gave his money to Edward Lake, a career utility outfielder from the BBA who they’ve been trying out in center field. He brings good all-around plate skills and an impressive outfield arm. The lineup is missing a sure-fire power bat, though. Lake isn’t a sure thing, especially being a left-handed hitter in a park which suppresses power from that side. The obvious hole where a power bat should be is at first base. Currently they’ve got James J. Barney slotted in at first, but he was below replacement level last season, and his defensive chops are questionable. Prospect Bernie Young, the #20 UMEBA prospect according to BNN, may also get a shot. But what they really need is a big, imposing force to lock down the middle of their lineup. Kind of like what Mangrouthormone was supposed to be last year. There are a couple other youngsters in the mix. Bodil Sellevold will be given an opportunity to claim the starting third base job, but after a disappointing 2048, he really needs to come out swinging if he wants to stick around. And young shortstop Geaney Fay, the #7 UMEBA prospect, has also looked good this spring. He’ll hit some home runs and strike out a lot. Pitching is the calling card for Mumbai, and this year will be no exception. Susila Kartosuwiryo, who seems like a wily veteran by now with a long career with all sorts of peaks and valleys, is still only 23, and with the stuff he brings, should be the anchor of the rotation. But after a disappointing 2048 he may be on his last chance to prove his worth. Next year will be his final arbitration year, and the Metro Stars may elect to trade him while he still has value. He is followed by Eglinton and Peter Ramsay, the young Scotsman who should do well in his first full season in the big leagues. Scouts have noticed an uptick in his velocity, so look for him to improve on last year’s rather paltry K rate of 5.8 per 9 innings. Augusto Morán also had a very strong September after being called up last season, so Mumbai should give him a chance as a full-time starter. In the bullpen, Alberto Ramírez and Knox Sked may be the best 1-2 punch in the UMEBA. Sked gets all the accolades, of course, but Ramírez has quietly locked down the eighth inning for the Metro Stars, posting a 1.90 ERA last season in 42.2 innings. 2049 prediction: 79-83. The lineup has holes, and the young pitching is volatile. They’ll stick around for most of the season, but ultimately sink below the stronger teams in the league. Tripoli Piranhas 2048 record: 66-96, 5th place in Bancroft League 2048 recap: Tripoli was expected to contend for a Wildcard spot, but things went pretty wrong pretty quickly. Takechi Eida got injured in early May and missed the rest of the season. But shortstop Stefan Adilov was a bright spot, his 128 OPS+ earning him a Platinum Stick award, and outfielder Justin Jackson adjusted well to the UMEBA, managing 41 home runs and 120 RBI. 2049 outlook: Lúcio Cuellar enjoyed his transition over to the UMEBA last season, with a .303 average, a strong defensive showing, and an UMEBA-leading 39 steals. He’s a perfect 2-hole hitter and captain, but he may not have enough of a supporting cast for his leadership to make a difference. Paul Wapshott is cut from the same cloth, with the same scrappy, slap-hitting style as Cuellar. He’ll also bat .300 and steal a few bases, but neither he nor Cuellar will get on base enough to make an impact in the team’s run production. This is where Tripoli needs to hope Eida can stay healthy, because they need his on-base ability in the lineup. Tripoli has some quality power bats in the middle of its lineup, if it can get enough guys on base for them. We know about Jackson and the power he brings. But two other young studs, António Román and Helmut Grün, are each breakout candidates for 2049. Román has serious pop, but his inconsistency has kept him from earning an everyday role. Grün hit 43 doubles last season and started to show some power. If each finds their form, this lineup could be very dangerous. As solid as the core is, the Piranhas will surely feel the loss of catcher Patrick Faber, who left for BBA money. The Piranhas’ current starting catcher is Roberto Souza, who isn’t bad, but is on the wrong side of 30 now, so it’s uncertain how much longer he’ll provide positive value. Pitching was truly a problem for Tripoli last season, whose staff posted a dreadful 5.52 ERA. Liam Dalton didn’t get a “win” to his name for the entire season. I know they say wins don’t matter, but you’d really like your ace to have at least one of them. Mahad Einan, who won the ERA crown as a 20-year-old in 2046, pitched to an UMEBA-worst 6.78 ERA last season. If anyone should be expected to bounce back, it’s him, since he’s only 22 and has shown an increased velocity in his spring outings, touching 100 at times and striking out more than a batter per inning. Gavrilovich Mastinsky could also stand to figure out how to pitch effectively. The young Russian who once showed so much promise as a prospect has yet to post an ERA below 5 at the big-league level. Consider, too, that Tripoli has the young Benno Steeneveld and Larry Leeder waiting in the wings to start games, so if one of the starters falters, they’ll be slotted in sooner rather than later. Closer Toby Bundy’s job is one of the more secure in the Unified. He gets the job done, saving 48 games over the last two seasons while only blowing six chances. And to be honest, the Piranhas don’t have many other options in the ‘pen. Suffice it to say, it will be an adventure to get to Bundy, and I think the Piranhas will lose their fair share of games in the 7th and 8th innings. 2049 prediction: 61-101. It’s not really as if they’ve gotten worse, but they did virtually nothing this winter to fix the sinking ship, while almost all the other Bancroft teams got better.