Macro
A rigorous and transparent framework to measure the risk of a sharp currency depreciation
FX Risk Tool
What the service includes Quarterly FX risk scores. Updated monthly, based on historical data from {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'FXRT/ forecast from YYYY', '{{FXRT/ forecast from YYYY}}')}} and our forecasts, providing a forward-looking indicator. Forward-looking measure. Using both established international data sources and our proprietary one-year-ahead forecasts for {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'FXRT/ XXX countries', '{{FXRT/ XXX countries}}')}}countries, we provide a score from 1 to 10 (where 1 is low risk and 10 is high risk). Spreadsheet-based analytical indicator. Allows easy comparison of FX risk and its drivers ({{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'FXRT/ XX sub components', '{{FXRT/ XX sub components}}')}} sub-components across a range of exchange rate regimes, utilising more than {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'FXRT/ XX series', '{{FXRT/ XX series}}')}} data series) across countries, regions and time. Expertise of our team of {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/413').'XXX economists', '{{XXX economists}}')}} economists, who monitor and analyse the data and the risk measures. Therefore, the results are rigorously back-tested, predicting the likelihood of a currency crisis and ability to manage carry strategies and assess value at risk. Monthly chartbook. Highlights currency risk developments across the EM space. Our Risk Chartbook will help you to uncover valuable insights. Support from specialists. Our risk-modelling team is available to answer questions about our analysis and forecasts.
Following the release of our Sovereign Risk Tool, we have introduced a complementary tool measuring currency risk in {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/776').'FXRT/ XXX countries', '{{FXRT/ XXX countries}}')}} countries. Our FX Risk Tool allows clients to measure the risk of a sharp depreciation for both floating and pegged currencies, making it a unique product in its space. In addition, it provides early warning indicators highlighting currency risk in developed, emerging and frontier markets. The tool helps analysts to assess the value at risk of their exposures and it can offer added value in managing carry strategies. The FX Risk Tool signals the probability of a major depreciation or a currency crisis and thus a risk to the baseline.
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The Oxford Economics team has, time and time again, proved to be a true partner – helping us shape loosely constructed concepts into solid hypotheses and synthesizing the requirements from multiple stakeholders into a cohesive plan.
SAP
Why Oxford Economics? A trusted brand. An acknowledged world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, our roster of over {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/413').'X,XXX clients (total)', '{{X,XXX clients (total)}}')}} clients includes leading companies across a range of industries, from consumer goods and retailers, to industrial manufacturing and energy, and to financial institutions and professional services. An objective, independent view. As a privately owned firm, you are assured that our analysis comes with no political or institutional bias. Calibre of staff. Our team of more than {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/413').'XXX economists', '{{XXX economists}}')}} economists and analysts have extensive industry, financial, and public-sector experience and are expert at applying advanced and innovative economic and research tools to provide valuable insights into today's most pressing business, financial, and policy issues. Quantitative rigour. We have long been a leader in quantitative analysis with over {{=ifError(nearestNamedReferenceKey('https://data.lucidpress.com/dataSets/413').'XX years established / XX year track record', '{{XX years established / XX year track record}}')}} years of experience conducting evidence-based research. Our clients rely on our services for business-critical activities such as forecasting, scenario framing, risk assessment, policy analysis, and market sizing. Accuracy of our analysis. Drawing on the most reliable, up-to-date data and leading-edge quantitative framework ensures accurate and timely analysis. Our forecasting track record is one of the best in the industry.
Helps to measure the risk of de-pegging episodes and value-at-risk. Monitors the vulnerability of currencies to a sharp depreciation which could have implications for customer demand, the price of inputs and the creditworthiness of suppliers.
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Ideal for In contrast to other asset classes, few tools exist to help investors, asset managers, corporates and banks to monitor and manage their diverse foreign exchange risks in a systematic way. Oxford Economics’ FX Risk Tool fills this gap.
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To find out more and get in touch with us, visit us at https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/service/subscription-services/macro/global-risk-service
Provides a transparent and unbiased assessment of FX risk, offering a forward-looking and leading indicator that highlights risks of sharp currency movements. Helps to improve investment decisions, by identifying potential sharp movements in FX which can be used to inform hedging strategies.
Asset Managers
Corporates and Banks