In this Issue... "As Inmarsat Stock Approaches its 5 Year Low, we revisit our 2015 Forecast" "Are Autonomous Ships the Future of Shipping?" A Interview with Peter Due, Director of Autonomy at Kongsberg "XipLink: A Unique Network Optimizer Revealed" With CEO, Jack Waters "Flat Panel Antenna Emerging: A Look at Kymeta and Its Future" with Bill Marks, Kymeta COO
Volume II, No 10 November 2017
Gottlieb's
Independent Analysis and Commentary on Maritime, Aero and Land-based Satellite Technologies
Satellite mobility World
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Welcome to the November 2017 issue of Gottlieb's Satellite Mobility World. Our magazine is now over 23 months old and in just 21 issues, we're now read in over 43 countries! We're following an industry that is rapidly evolving. Satellite Operators are racing to build new HTS and LEO constellations. Hub and Modem manufacturers are introducing new ultra high speed infrastructure, and flat panel antennas will soon be coming to market. At Satellite Mobility World, we're reviewing these new technologies and the strategies that are reshaping the industry. The big news this month is Iridium's third successful launch. With 30 satellites now in Orbit, the company is moving ever closer to mounting a serious challenge to Inmarsat's Fleet Broadband and Swift's domination of the L-Band market . Also, of unique interest this month is our coverage of Kongsberg's autonomous ship program, an interview with Kymeta COO, Bill Marks, and a focus on XipLink CEO, Jack Waters. Gottlieb's Satellite and Mobility World is published monthly (except August) by Gottlieb International Group., Inc. Suite 100, 1209 South Frederick Street, Arlington, VA USA 22204 © Copyright 2017 (Tel +1-703-622-8520) Interested in our unique Promotional Capabilities? Contact us today!
SATELLITE MOBILITY WORLD
GOTTLIEB'S
In this Issue:
Industry Trends and Analysis: (pg. 3) "As Inmarsat Stock Approaches its Five year Low, We Revisit our 2015 Forecast" (Pg. 4) "Are Autonomous Ships the Future of Shipping?" A Interview with Peter Due, Director of Autonomy at Kongsberg" (pg. 6) "XipLink: A Unique Network Optimizer Revealed" With CEO, Jack Waters. (pg.17) "Flat Panel Antenna Emerging: A Look at Kymeta and Its Future" with Kymeta COO Bill Marks (pg. 23) "Recommended Upcoming Mobility Related Satellite Industry Events" (pg. 31)
Industry Trends and Analysis
Phasor Secures $16M Equity Funding Round Strategic and Financial Investors join current Shareholders in oversubscribed financing round "Washington D.C., October 30, 2017: Phasor Inc., the leading developer of commercial, phased array antenna systems for the growing wideband mobile broadband market, announced today that it has raised $16 million from a group of leading satellite communications mobility companies, financial investors and shareholders. This B-Round funding, which closed this summer, allows Phasor to advance commercialization of its first electronically steered antenna products, and to further develop next generation technologies for commercial passenger vehicles and the satellite operators and mobile network services providers who serve them. Participating in this round were several corporate/strategic investors, two large family offices and an investment fund, together with existing shareholders. “Phasor’s mission is to empower mobile broadband access across all commercial use-cases and markets, and it is on track for commercial release in 2018,” said Dave Helfgott, CEO of Phasor. “Phasor is very pleased to welcome its new investors, alongside its supportive shareholders and other partners. Phasor is dedicated to meeting the growing, underserved and unmet needs of today’s network-centric travelers, who require broadband access everywhere, whether that is in-flight, at sea or over land.” Phasor’s very low profile, electronically steerable antenna (ESA) enables high-bandwidth service in a more reliable, robust and failure-tolerant way. The antenna is solid-state, with no moving parts, so satellite signals are tracked electronically. The ESA can be flat or conformal in design and can be fitted seamlessly to moving vehicles, including an aircraft fuselage, a cruise ship or a high-speed train. The same technology is very well suited to support traditional fixed satellite networks, High Throughput Satellites, and Non-Geosynchronous satellite networks. Moreover, the antenna’s modular architecture allows the system to be scaled to virtually any use-case requirement, fixed or mobile." For further information, and to view our informational videos, please visit http://phasorsolutions.com/featured-content ABS CEO, Tom Choi, Steps Down - Contrarian Entrepreneur Seeks New Path Outside of Satellite Hong Kong, October 27th: Thomas Choi, well known CEO of Asia Broadcast Satellite, has stepped down as CEO but will remain on the Board. We spoke with Thomas regarding his plans for the future, and , as usual, he shared a unique perspective. Thomas noted that he has taken ABS from an unknown start-up to a $100 Million major satellite operator, and he has done it focusing on the DTH, cable and C-Band business, what satellites do best, avoiding other satellite operators preoccupation with data and mobility. He believes that with the coming of 5G, it will be impossible for satellite operators to provide equivalent speeds to end users in terrestrial markets, and that given that inevitable shortcoming, the opportunity is in provision of competitive terrestrial based broadband technologies. This is where he wants to focus. He comments that "5G will change our perception of what it means to have a broadband experience. Today’s satellite technologies HTS/GEO/LEO will not play a meaningful role in 5G because of the sheer bandwidth required to the towers. I want to participate in the future development of 5G by investing my energies in the near future developing and deploying terrestrial broadband systems in the emerging markets” It is especially interesting to note that while many in the satellite industry regard Tom's prognostications regarding satellite overcapacity in mobility markets as overly negative, investors seem to support his views. Consider that Inmarsat stock has declined 50% from its 52 week high and is hovering just above its five year low. SES stock has experienced a drop of nearly 38% over 52 weeks, and Eutelsat over 17%. There appears to be little doubt that flooding the skies with enormous quantities of commodity Ku and Ka-Band HTS bandwidth has aroused significant investor concern. Interestingly, Iridium, which competes only with Inmarsat and Globalstar, has seen it's stock soar as it comes closer to completion of its new NEXT constellation which, when complete, will significantly challenge Inmarsat's dominance of that market. Successful Third Iridium NEXT Launch Brings New Services Closer to Life All 10 satellites deployed, providing telemetry and beginning system checkout "MCLEAN, Va., Oct. 09, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) announced today the successful third launch and deployment of 10 Iridium NEXT satellites. The satellites were delivered into low-Earth orbit approximately one hour after a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California at 5:37 a.m. PDT. With two successful launches having already been completed this year, this third batch of 10 satellites brings the total number of Iridium NEXT satellites in orbit to 30, nearly half the amount required for a full Iridium NEXT operational constellation. While already able to deliver fully global communications coverage, the Iridium constellation is undergoing a technological transformation. At the center of this transformation are three new capabilities; Iridium CertusSM, the company's new L-band broadband service; Aireon's space-based automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) hosted-payload, that will provide real-time tracking and surveillance of all ADS-B equipped aircraft globally; and Harris Corporation and exactEarth's ship tracking service. "Each successful launch brings us one step closer to both a technological and financial transformation," said Iridium CEO, Matt Desch. "One of our core strategies is to offer new services that are either flat out impossible or not easily replicated by more traditional "bent pipe" and geostationary systems. Satellite Time & Location, Short Burst Data® and Iridium PTT are just a few examples of global services only possible on our network. For us and our partners, Iridium NEXT is an engine for innovation, and services like these are just the start. Moreover, we're on track to completion in 2018." Iridium NEXT is the company's next-generation satellite constellation, replacing and enhancing its existing network of interconnected, low-Earth orbit satellites spanning the entire globe — the largest commercial satellite constellation in space. The constellation's unique architecture features interconnected satellites that form a web of coverage around the earth, enabling connectivity over the oceans, in the poles and other remote areas. The Iridium NEXT system and satellites have been designed and managed by Thales Alenia Space, serving as prime contractor for the program. The satellites are integrated at Thales Alenia Space's subcontractor, Orbital ATK's, satellite manufacturing facility in Arizona. Thales Alenia Space and Orbital ATK are managing a state-of-the-art, high production rate assembly line system, similar in approach to the process that built the first Iridium satellite constellation over twenty years ago. Iridium and SpaceX are partnered for a series of eight launches, seven deploying 10 Iridium NEXT satellites at a time and one deploying five. A total of 81 Iridium NEXT satellites are being built, with 66 required for the operational constellation. A total of 75 satellites are currently planned for launch with nine of those serving as on-orbit spares and the remaining six as ground spares. The entire Iridium NEXT network is scheduled to be completed by mid-2018. For more information about Iridium NEXT, please visit www.iridium.com." Comtech EF Data Announces Gigabit Data Rate Capability for CDM-760 High-Speed Trunking and Broadcast Modem "PHOENIX, AZ. , Nov 3, 2017 - Comtech EF Data Corp., a subsidiary within Comtech Telecommunications Corp.'s (NASDAQ: CMTL) Commercial Solutions segment, announced today that its CDM-760 Advanced High-Speed Trunking and Broadcast Modem has been significantly enhanced with faster data rates. The award-winning modem is an industry-preferred solution for high-speed trunking, fiber restoration and broadcast applications. Now with 2X faster speeds, the CDM-760 supports > 720 Mbps simplex and > 1.4 Gbps duplex data rates. The Gigabit capability enables faster data transmissions between satellites and ground stations, allowing service providers to deliver new services and improve quality of experience for end users." Speedcast Secures Multi-Year Contract to Provide Mission-Critical Remote Communication Services to Australian Antarctic Research Stations "SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA, October 30 - Speedcast International Limited (ASX: SDA), the world's most trusted provider of highly reliable, fully managed, remote communication and IT solutions, has been awarded a multi-year, multimillion-dollar contract with an Australian government department conducting world-class scientific and environmental research in Antarctica. Speedcast will provide the Australian Antarctic program with mission-critical and life-saving communications to the outside world. "Being chosen to provide communications in Antarctica is both an honor and a testament to Speedcast’s commitment to supporting the Australian government and enabling leading-edge research," said Pierre-Jean Beylier, CEO, Speedcast. "Our team of highly qualified engineers is proud to provide 24/7 support and solutions to enable individuals in these remote and harsh locations to communicate with the outside world for day-to-day communication and in the event they need emergency assistance. This win is an example of the increase in government spending in satellite communications and Speedcast’s ability to grow market share as the government segment continues to expand." Speedcast will provide VSAT bandwidth, equipment and installation including training, antenna upgrades and repositioning, and network optimization. Speedcast will also provide additional support to other scientific users such as Geoscience Australia at the three Australian Antarctic research stations, Mawson, Casey and Davis, as well as the base on Macquarie Island. With the updates Speedcast is making to the satellite links, the research program will have four times more throughput than it had with their previous provider once installations are completed in January 2018. While there may be up to 120 people on each research station in the summer, during the harsh winters of Antarctica when travel to the icy continent is not possible, the population of each research station is much smaller and satellite communication is their only link to the outside world. The reliability of these links is essential for the well-being of wintering expeditioners and enables telemedicine support if required." Iridium Announces Date for Fourth Iridium® NEXT Launch "MCLEAN, Va., Oct. 19, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) announced today that the fourth Iridium NEXT launch has been targeted by SpaceX for December 22, 2017 at 5:26 p.m. PT [1:26 a.m. UTC on Dec. 23], from Vandenberg Air Force Base. This launch signifies the mid-way point of the Iridium NEXT launch program and will deliver another 10 satellites to orbit, bringing the total number deployed to 40. Targeted for just over two months after the third Iridium NEXT launch, this December date enables Iridium to maintain its planned cadence of completing all launches by mid-2018, even with SpaceX's busy launch manifest. To date, 30 Iridium NEXT satellites have been deployed, many of which are already providing service to customers. The new satellites are also now undergoing on-orbit testing for Iridium CertusSM, a major milestone on the path to introducing the company's next generation broadband service. Iridium Certus will feature small form factor, cost-effective terminals and antennas, and ultimately offer the fastest L-band broadband solution available, supported by the world's only truly global network. In addition to the fourth launch date, Iridium also announced it has reached agreement with SpaceX to utilize flight-proven first stages for the next two Iridium launches. Iridium conducted extensive due diligence work and is fully confident in the SpaceX booster refurbishment program. "I believe that reusability is the future for satellite launches, and I think SpaceX has intelligently built their Falcon 9 program around this strategy," said Iridium CEO Matt Desch. "With three successful flight-proven Falcon 9 launches already this year, we're excited to show leadership towards the sustainable access to space, while also making sure we maintain our cadence to complete the five remaining Iridium NEXT launches by the middle of next year." Iridium confirmed with its insurers that there is no increase in premium for the launch program as a result of the use of flight-proven Falcon 9 rockets, further supporting Iridium's conclusion that the risk profile is unchanged." KVH Launches New High-speed Maritime Network on Intelsat EpicNG Satellites "MIDDLETOWN, RI, and LUXEMBOURG, October 31, 2017 – KVH Industries, Inc., (Nasdaq: KVHI), today announced the launch of its next-generation, advanced maritime broadband network, joined by service partner, Intelsat S.A. (NYSE: I). Slated for commercial availability next month, KVH’s high-speed overlay to its current mini-VSAT BroadbandSM service is expected to triple, and in some cases increase by a multiple of six, the data speeds for its maritime customers. At the core of its capabilities, KVH’s advanced maritime broadband network will incorporate Intelsat EpicNG satellite services and the award-winning IntelsatOne Flex platform, a global managed service designed to optimize bandwidth allocations and provide flexible coverage where it is needed. KVH’s mini-VSAT Broadband network is also expected to benefit from increased Asian satellite capacity from SKY Perfect JSAT. At launch, KVH will have the largest maritime Ku-band network offering speeds as fast as 10 Mbps to each terminal. Each Intelsat EpicNG satellite has 25-60 Gbps of capacity, which is expected to deliver a major performance enhancement for KVH subscribers. KVH’s enhanced service is designed to enable significant improvements in business productivity in the commercial maritime world, and enrich the onboard experience for superyachts and recreational boats. “Intelsat has been instrumental in helping us develop the advances to our mini-VSAT Broadband service, continuing the positive working relationship we’ve had for many years,” says Brent Bruun, KVH chief operating officer. “We expect to provide our maritime customers with increased data speeds at the same price points as our current service, while offering unparalleled coverage on a global basis. We just celebrated the 10th anniversary of our market-leading VSAT solution, and, with this new evolution of our mini-VSAT Broadband network, we believe KVH is continuing to set the pace for maritime satellite communications.” The new, advanced mini-VSAT Broadband network will include southern Atlantic and southern Indian Ocean capacity, which is the primary driver for an expansion of KVH’s already industry-leading Ku-band coverage by 25 million square miles. “Broadband connectivity is transforming how the maritime sector operates. We built upon our leading maritime broadband infrastructure by designing the Intelsat EpicNG platform and IntelsatOne Flex for Maritime services to support our maritime customers’ growth objectives,” says Mark Rasmussen, Intelsat’s vice president and general manager, mobility. “We have simplified the integration of high-performance broadband services into a network and made bandwidth management easier. KVH, as the inaugural partner for IntelsatOne Flex for Maritime, plans to use our global maritime fabric to unlock new and larger applications for their end users while also providing the same high-quality broadband service wherever operations take them.” KVH’s previously fielded base of TracPhone V7-IP mini-VSAT Broadband systems is easily upgradeable to take advantage of the higher network speeds and improved global coverage of the advanced network. However, existing customers do not need to upgrade if they don’t need the higher speeds and improved coverage. KVH’s mini-VSAT Broadband service provides a complete end-to-end solution for the maritime market, including: global connectivity; TracPhone® V7-HTS and the TracPhone V-IP series satellite antenna systems; the KVH OneCareTM service and support program; the innovative IP-MobileCastTM content delivery service; award-winning VideotelTM maritime training programs, which are in use on more than 12,000 commercial vessels globally; and, crew welfare content, including the NEWSlinkTM daily news service in use on more than 9,000 vessels worldwide." Inmarsat and Deutsche Telekom Demonstrate European Aviation Network Satellite and Ground Integration in Flight "26 October 2017: Inmarsat (LON: ISAT), the leading provider of global mobile satellite communications, and Deutsche Telekom, the leading integrated telecommunications company, have successfully completed the first flight trials to test both the satellite and complementary ground network for their European Aviation Network (EAN) service. EAN is the world’s first dedicated aviation solution to combine space and ground based components to deliver robust, ultra-lightweight, high-speed inflight broadband to airlines. The recent flights demonstrated that EAN meets its design performance in practice; a significant milestone for the project consortium, as well as European airlines and their passengers. Inmarsat and Deutsche Telekom conducted the evaluation with partners Cobham, Thales and Nokia using a CESSNA 550 Citation II provided by Dutch company NLR. The aircraft was flown across Germany, Belgium, France and Spain, covering approximately 5,000 km of European airspace, to test integration of the Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) and Complementary Ground Component (CGC) terminals. Further flight trials are scheduled over the coming weeks. Inmarsat Aviation President Philip Balaam said: “These flight trials, together with the recent news that Ofcom in the UK is the latest European regulator to authorise the ground-based stations as part of the EAN, moves the project a step closer to commencing commercial service with our launch customer, which we expect to take place in the first half of 2018. This will be a game-changer for the airline market, offering passengers a new gold standard in resilient and scalable inflight broadband, with unmatched high capacity, low-latency performance.” Inmarsat’s EAN satellite, which completed its in-orbit tests last month after being launched by Arianespace, works seamlessly with a complementary network of around 300 LTE-based ground stations, operated by Deutsche Telekom, using an Advanced Integrated Services Manager (AISM) platform. International Airlines Group (IAG), which includes world-renowned airline brands" such as British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Vueling, is the launch customer for the new service.
"Intelsat/One Web Alliance and a Stampede of New Competitors Accelerate Inmarsat’s Decline" (Originally Published on LinkedIn December 2015)
As Inmarsat's Stock Approaches its 5 Year Low We Revisit our December 2015 Forecast
By Alan Gottlieb
"It’s now becoming increasingly clear that Inmarsat management’s long list of strategic missteps, combined with the anticipated heavy competition coming from well-funded, strategically aggressive adversaries, paves the way for a steepening decline in the Communication Giant’s fortunes. The maritime communications market is about to be flooded with new, high-speed Ku-Band by Global Xpress FSS competitors, and the Commercial Aviation market, except for Viasat’s very high capacity Ka-Band service, is expected to be dominated by Ku-band, leaving Inmarsat only limited opportunity. In Maritime, the minimal capacity of Inmarsat’s Global Xpress service renders it nearly obsolete even before it’s launch. The 50 Mbps capacity in a single beam is but a fraction of the capacity soon to be available in Ku-Band from recently announced, new satellite constellations from Intelsat Epic\One Web, SES\O3b and Telesat. Further complicating matters is GX’s greater susceptibility to dreaded Rain Fade - a phenomenon that threatens its adoption on Global sailing routes. Even the Company’s near monopoly on L-Band services is not likely to be sustained for long as Iridium’s soon to be introduced NEXT product, a service far superior to Fleet Broadband, soon debuts. To make matters worse, Inmarsat’s ability to successfully sell GX has been strangled through its ill-conceived strategy to compete with its own distributors. It now faces the unpleasant reality that they enjoy a higher profit selling their very own Ku-Band HTS services and, having contracted for the fixed cost of Ku-Band capacity, by selling GX, they actually compete against themselves. This leaves little doubt that Inmarsat will have to sell most of the GX service with its own limited sales force. Adding to the marketing problem was the Company’s own ill conceived move to gouge its loyal customers by drastically increasing prices on its Legacy and low-volume Fleet Broadband services. By exploiting the Company’s monopolistic position in Fleet Broadband, Inmarsat essentially sacrificed future goodwill for near-term profitability and “poisoned” its Positioning as a “customer centric” company, thereby discouraging maritime customers from ever putting themselves in a monopoly service position with Inmarsat again i.e. Global Xpress. In the commercial aviation side, Global Xpress’ is not likely to be well received either. As Inmarsat is the supplier of a proprietary Ka-Band Global Service, airlines face the same pricing threat as in the shipping industry. If airlines have to “swap out” GX due to dissatisfaction or extreme price increases, their alternative is to face the enormous cost of refitting their planes, leaving them exposed to the same kind of price extortion that forced FB users to continue the service at drastically higher prices. Furthermore, the limited capacity of the GX service makes it unlikely to support thousands of Jumbo Jet passengers with “home-like” Internet access (contrary to Leo Mondale’s claim). In fact, the capacity issue is likely to restrict use in the airline segment to commercial airlines flying thinly traveled routes or business jets. Major carriers will almost remain with Ku-Band services or those who elect to use Ka-Band will choose ViaSat. (Note: Since publication of this article, Inmarsat has had to offer substantial incentives to win contracts including absorbing the installation cost in at least once instance. This has resulted a huge increase in CAPEX while realization of revenues from passenger use is still years away). While the long-term picture for Inmarsat is increasingly bleak, we do not believe the Company will disappear entirely from the mobility market. There is hope that some combination of some sustained FB usage, military use of GX, and potential success of the European air to ground venture, will be sufficient to keep it operating. However, we continue to predict that the Company’s decline to a “Backseat” position is inevitable as it struggles against an increasing tide of powerful, new competitors with superior technologies - all fighting against it for a share of global mobility markets."
As of October 27, Inmarsat stock is down a whopping 50% from its 52 Week high making it the worst performing stock in the satellite operator sector. While the company is still financially sound, we believe the company's market position will continue to deteriorate. Excessive capital expenditures related to its GX aviation business, weak maritime markets and sub par adoption rates of its GX platform, combined with a litany of on-going strategic missteps continue to threaten Inmarsat's dominance of mobility markets. As Inmarsat's stock's price hovers near it's 5 year low, we are pleased to re-publish my article which was originally published on LinkedIn in December of 2015.
Are Autonomous Ships the Future of Shipping?
An Interview with Kongsberg's Director of Autonomy, Peter Due
Autonomous shipping has recently been a hot topic in maritime circles. While the concept of unmanned vessels is, in itself, attractive from an economic standpoint, there are many questions regarding its actual implementation, ranging from the maturity of the technology to regulatory and insurance issues. To find out what the latest prospects are for unmanned shipping, we arranged an interview with Kongsberg, the leading company in the development of autonomous shipping. Peter Due, Director of Autonomy at the company, was kind enough to provide us with an in-depth perspective on the both the present state of the technology and the remaining challenges to its widespread adoption. SMW: Can you give us some background on Kongsberg Maritime and its involvement with autonomous ship projects? Peter Due: This was a natural step for us. We have been working with autonomy for 40 years. If you are familiar with Dynamic Positioning which works autonomously, we developed and successfully launched such a system for the oil industry on May 17, 1977. That’s the reason we have had so much success in that industry, we enabled drilling in deep ocean not only in Norway but around the world. Based on what we learned from Dynamic Positioning, in 1991 we launched our fully autonomous UAV, a small submarine, HUGIN, six meters long. Essentially, the system is fully autonomous. You give it a mission. It plans it, and you drop it in the ocean. It completes its tasks and then comes up at a pre-programed point in the ocean. Lately, we have seen other suppliers remotely operating vessels. They are coming closer to us in technology. We did this in the late 90’s with Sea Launch. So, we mastered this technology over a period of many years. In fact, we have autonomous vessels operating today within Norwegian waters that have collision avoidance. Together we are working on an autonomy engine with the Norwegian Defense Research Institute. SMW: What in your opinion, is the greatest technological challenge(s) in developing an autonomous vessel? Peter Due: Actually, I think the biggest challenge is not technology but legislation. The IMO doesn’t have any rules in place for this. So, autonomous shipping must be done in national waters where you can do extensions to existing rules. We are working on this with the Norwegian Maritime administration on how to form the legislation for the future. We hope that this effort will also help the IMO with their effort as well. One current project is with Yara, a firm that deals in agricultural commodities. Their autonomous vessel will transport fertilizer within Norwegian waters for a distance of around 32 miles. On the project with Yara, in the first stage in 2019 the vessel is manned, and then in 2020, we take away the wheelhouse and the vessel operation is fully autonomous. The reason why we are initially manning the vessel is to give us time to get the appropriate legislation to allow it to operate unmanned. The Norwegian maritime authorities including the Coastal Administration are all in on the project. So, manning the ship on a temporary basis was the solution until the necessary regulations for autonomous shipping are in place. SMW: Are you saying that they are no technological challenges to autonomous shipping? Peter Due: The basic technology is already available. So, we can do it tomorrow. The U.S. military already has autonomous vessels today. We are quite humble, however, as we are constantly refining the technology. SMW:What about insurance considerations? Will insurers cover an automated vessel with premiums comparable to manned vessels? Peter Due: What’s interesting is the premium drops for an autonomous ship. They consider an unmanned ship to be less risky than a manned vessel. However, that’s just for a few insurance companies. I can’t speak for all of them. SMW: Can you please describe the technology required to accomplish this project including, batteries, collision avoidance technology, required connectivity and IoT? Peter Due: In terms of batteries, the Yara vessel runs on between 7.5 and 9 Megawatts which will be the largest marine battery in the world. It will likely be a lithium Ion battery with cells in racks – equivalent to 17 million AAA batteries. There will be plenty of time to re-charge due to the time required to load and unload the vessel. Also, the vessel will only be required to sail a maximum of 32 nautical miles – distances well within the range of what we anticipate as up to a 200-nautical mile range. For transoceanic voyages, Fuel Cell technology and hydrogen or hybrid powered vessels are the likely future means of propulsion, since the space required to house enormous amounts of batteries would make transoceanic vessels impractical. For collision avoidance, the vessel uses “sensor fusion.” In this process, we mark the “way points” on sea charts and we incorporate a sonar picture of the bottom to see what’s underneath the keel. Next we add AIS and radar information. You then take data from proximity sensor and optical sensors, and combine the information to gain a complete picture of the ship’s surroundings. If based on these inputs, the AI system cannot resolve the issue, the vessel stops, drops anchor and waits for either instructions from shore or a tug boat. Regarding connectivity, we will have triple redundant communication. We will have 4G or 5G for nearby coastal traffic, our own maritime broadband system which operates on an unlicensed band, up to 55 kilometers from shore and delivers 15 Megabits up and down. You could do the entire coast line of Norway with just 34 antennas. We will have satellite VSAT as well when the other alternatives are not available. Of course, we will mostly be sending commands which require very little bandwidth. In terms of IoT, the most likely application will be enhanced monitoring of the vessel. You can monitor hull stress, wear and tear on ball bearings, gaskets with sensors. Of course, this type of monitoring can be implemented along with predictive maintenance. You do maintenance based on needs rather than a set schedule. SMW: Are Cloud based applications widely deployed in the autonomous ship management process? Peter Due: Our mission management and a lot of simulations run in the Cloud, but the processing will be on the vessel. For the most part, the ships run without the need for connectivity. The systems need to work on their own even if they are not connected. Even the most progressive people at our organization only see AI processing happening on the vessel, not in the Cloud. For example, our ship optimization platform is Cloud based. Before we send off the ship, it makes a synthetic journey in the cloud with a “digital twin” where we implement all data – weather, currents, tides, temperature etc. It makes an optimum route and then sends it to the vessels while in port. The vessel then has the capability, based on sensors deployed on the vessel, to sense changes in sea conditions and adjust and re-route at sea, if necessary. This is what we call Advanced Maneuvering technology. While it’s based on Dynamic Positioning technology, it’s not quite the same. SMW: What about docking. Is there no human intervention when the vessel nears port? What about the need for a Pilot? Peter Due: The ship will dock by itself. No human intervention is required. However, let me clarify. On “short” shipping or shipping within a regional area – not transoceanic – ships will be able to operate autonomously over the entire route. This will not be true on transoceanic voyages where we can expect limited human intervention – more like an automatic pilot function on aircraft. SMW: Is this technology implemented on a New Build or is it retrofitted? Peter Due: There is limited functionality than can be implemented in a retrofit mode, but if you want to have a fully autonomous vessel, it needs to be implemented on New Builds. For example, you could retrofit collision avoidance equipment and an autopilot like function, but true autonomy requires an extensive, highly advanced array that could not be easily retrofitted. In addition, many vessels have very old legacy technology. So, an autonomous upgrade might be possible, it would be prohibitively expensive. SMW: What types of vessels are most likely to be operated autonomously in the future? Peter Due: The first ships will be container ships, bulk carriers and then Ro-Ro ships within the “short” sea segment – coastal traffic within national waters. When it comes to ships with hazardous materials i.e. oil and LPG tankers, adoption is still in question. Also, battery operated vessels that require less maintenance can be operated in the “short” sea segment. In transoceanic voyages, electric propulsion is not feasible due to the amount of batteries required. So, conventional propulsion with greater maintenance requirements would also be a barrier to transoceanic autonomous shipping. SMW: Assuming the Yara initiative is successful, do you foresee a rapidly expanding demand for autonomous technology or do you believe that the adoption of autonomous vessels is a long, protracted process? Peter Due: This is fully commercial from day one. It’s not a trial and Yara’s analysis shows its economic. It saves money and the environment. We will start to see volumes of ships operating autonomously from 2020-2025. Adoption is going much faster than expected. SMW:How do sell this technology to the shipping industry? Peter Due: Today, Shipping companies are contacting us directly. There has been a lot of news about our autonomous shipping initiative in the press. So, we have lots of interest and inquiries. Not a day goes by without a company contacting us.
About Peter Due Peter has been involved in developing Kongsberg Maritime’s autonomy program. And also been part of the team developing the concept of Yara Birkeland. Previously he worked with project management delivering Dynamic Positioning Systems. He also has a background as an entrepreneur, diplomat in Saudi Arabia and officer with the Norwegian Armed Forces.
A Word with Jack Waters, CEO XipLink....
Unlike in the terrestrial connectivity world, maintaining network connectivity and quality of service in the satellite mobility world is extraordinarily challenging. Bandwidth is limited and user demands are intense, especially in the Cruise and Aviation markets. To manage these highly stressed networks and maximize the efficient delivery of bandwidth, our focus is drawn to XipLink, a small innovative company that is working behind the scenes, deploying a valuable set of WAN enhancement products critical to satellite mobility services. To find out more about XipLink, we met with Jack Waters, the company's CEO. SMW: Can you give us some background on XipLink focusing on the company’s origin and product portfolio? Originally, XipLink was a TCP accelerator product that was built inside a company called Xiphos during the Dot-com era. I met the key Xiphos senior managers, Eric Edwards and Charlie Younghusband, during my tenure at iDirect when a standards-based SCPS TCP standalone accelerator was required for the military marketplace. After retiring from iDirect in 2007, I decided to try another start-up by spinning off the TCP acceleration intellectual property from Xiphos and seed capital into a new company called XipLink, with the strategy of creating a WAN optimization solution targeted to the demanding requirements of satellite and stressed wireless networks. The company is based in Montreal (Quebec, Canada) where the primary R&D work is created with support offices in Pretoria, South Africa and Ashburn, Virginia USA which allows 24-hour rotating coverage for our customers. In addition, we have sales and system engineering presence in Europe, Asia, Latin-America and North America. From a product perspective, XipLink is a software company that delivers Wireless Link Optimizations (WLO) in two primary product lines called XA (XipLink Appliances) with purpose matched hardware and XV (Virtual XipLink) for customer supplied hardware. In addition to highly scalable TCP acceleration the key functions in the XipOS solution set include QoS, UDP packet optimizations (header compression and coalescing), a series of compression algorithms including Advanced Cellular Compression (ACC) for cellular backhaul networks, link balancing/bonding and two caching schemes, one for web objects and another for repeating data patterns called byte caching. There is a specialty product line called XS for unique devices such as a dedicated TCP accelerator, single board computing packages and a future product for cellular networks. XipLink's main differentiators are higher throughput performance in satellite networks versus wireline competitors, typically 30-40% web load time reduction for user experience benefits, relatively low capital cost as opposed to wireline solutions and an extraordinary commitment to customer service. SMW: The satellite industry is evolving very rapidly. As demand for bandwidth soars, the industry is in the process of launching numerous constellations of High Throughput Satellites – GEO and LEO. Bandwidth prices are falling rapidly. In a market where bandwidth is inexpensive and abundant, is Network Optimization as important as it was in the past? Jack Waters: The answer is that in a market where bandwidth is abundant and inexpensive, features like compression becomes less important, however, TCP acceleration becomes more important and so does Link Balancing and Bonding. In today’s world, the market has moved beyond the slow speeds of 2007 of 2 or 3 or 10 Megabits per second to tens and hundreds of Megabits per second. That's why we upgraded XipLink to handle links up to 1.3 Gigabits. When there is more bandwidth, the number of TCP session counts also increase dramatically so the modem manufacturers just can't build in enough processing power at reasonable cost to handle TCP acceleration. Our technology allows them to offload the TCP processing onto a separate board that does the processing externally. In this new High Throughput Satellite environment, Link Balancing and Bonding takes on additional importance to create backups for the primary links, to aggregate multiple VSAT links into ever higher bandwidth pools and to integrate with other technologies such as cellular or terrestrial microwave for a complete hybrid network. An example would be a hybrid Ka-band and C-Band network where traffic needs to be managed when a Ka-Band link is disrupted by rain fade and shifted to the C-Band component. Another example is the emergence of networks that will combine LEO and GEO satellites - all situations where our Link Balancing and Bonding feature is uniquely useful. SMW: I understand that the the TCP Accelerator is the core product in your offering. Can you tell me more about it? Jack Waters: As you know, it’s always more difficult to handle network optimization over satellite, and that’s what sets us apart from other network optimization products. XipLink's TCP Accelerator does spoofing and flow control management over satellite. We have four different flow controls for TDMA (Dynamic Rate Control), SCPC (Fixed Rate Control), MSS (Delay-Based Rate Control) and a Programmable Rate Control for immediate feedback from partner modems. Today, many of our new sales come from XipLink's ability to handle much higher scale for both TCP session counts and aggregate bandwidth capacities versus previous generation TCP accelerators. SMW: In addition to the TCP Accelerator and the Balancing and Bonding feature, are there other components to XipLink? Jack Waters: Yes, there are several additional features worth mentioning. With our QoS Shaper, XipOS matches the parameters of an SLA agreement and assures that the criteria set forth are enforced. For example, destructive traffic is mitigated, prioritizing voice, etc. The shaper assures that the network will make use of the additional bandwidth created by the Accelerator. Another feature is XipLink Real Time (XRT). It's used to optimize UDP and other IP traffic. XipOS performs header compression and packet coalescing, a feature that combines small packets into larger packets which permits the modem to dramatically increase the packet per second rate. These features are particularly relevant to maximize the efficiency of the return channel, a feature especially important to the cruise and aviation industries due to original asymmetric network designs now evolving into symmetrical traffic requirements due to use of Skype and Cloud computing and other applications. SMW: Jack, that is an interesting array of features. Is this a custom product or are the different components bundled into "off the shelf solutions" that combine different combinations of features? Jack Waters: The only options are a lossy compression capability on the outbound web traffic (XHO) and a VPN option to allow the traffic to be optimized first and then encrypted, up to AES-256, in an IPSEC tunnel. The XipLink solution set is designed to be "off the shelf" so we include most every function in the base system. SMW: Thanks Jack for a very good overview of your very useful and important XipLink product.
XipLink: A Unique Wireless Network Optimizer Revealed
"XipLink's main differentiators are higher throughput performance in satellite networks versus wireline competitors, typically 30-40% web load time reduction for user experience benefits, relatively low capital cost as opposed to wireline solutions and an extraordinary commitment to customer service."
About Jack Waters: Mr. Waters joined XipLink in 2007 to help spin-off from the former parent company, Xiphos Technologies of Montreal, Quebec (Canada), and to establish XipLink as a significant market player for WAN optimization in satellite and wireless communications. Prior to XipLink, he was Senior Vice President of Global Sales at iDirect Technologies, Inc. from 2001 to 2007, where he was a key contributor to the senior management team that resurrected a struggling dot-com business to a leader in IP based satellite VSAT systems. iDirect was sold to Singapore Technologies in 2005 for $165M USD. Prior to iDirect Mr. Waters was VP of Worldwide Sales for CoManage Corporation, a software developer of OSS Systems for ISP’s, CLEC’s and Alternative Telco's. Mr. Waters attended Michigan State University, and graduated with a B.S. in Accounting in 1980.
Flat Panel Antenna Emerging: A Look at Kymeta and Its Future
No company in the satellite industry has emerged with more fanfare or a higher profile than Kymeta Corp. Backed originally by billionaire Bill Gates, the company has secured numerous rounds of additional financing and has just recently launched the first iteration of its metamaterials based flat panel antenna. To the company's credit, it is the first developer of a new generation of lower cost, mass produced electronically steered antennas to manufacture and release a product. We have followed them from the early days and through several stages of development and product evolution. Originally, according to our sources, the focus of the company was on developing a portable satellite antenna and later evolved to the land mobility market. Essentially, this was a road map to develop a very low cost, mass produced antenna that could ultimately cost in the low hundreds of dollars. The company's "flagship" deal was and still is to build an antenna for Toyota motors that could be incorporated into the roof of millions of automobiles and used to update the software in the vehicles using "point to multi-point satellite technology. The first iteration of the antenna to be developed was a 70 cm unit which is the antenna currently being manufactured and sold today. As the market for connected car technology was still several years away, in the interim, Kymeta sought to develop alternative markets for it's technology. Based on the capacity limitations of a single unit, the initial effort was to develop a low bandwidth, Ku-Band based product to compete with Inmarsat Fleet Broadband, but was later abandoned as the company developed the ability to combine two or more Kymeta units on the down link to achieve higher throughput. Using two units in combination, Kymeta can now approach the down link performance of a 60 cm parabolic antenna, bore-site on, and could even do a bit better due to its ability to produce a beam pattern less subject to interference than a conventional parabolic. Here's what Bill Marks, COO, had to say about the current state of the antenna and its future: SMW: Bill, I understand that initially, due to to the bandwidth limitations of the antenna, the intent was to develop a narrow band, Ku-Band product to compete with Inmarsat Fleet Broadband. Could you explain that strategy and how it has evolved? Bill Marks: That was the target market for sure, but there were advancements in the antenna and the ability to combine antennas to improve performance that made the addressable market grow. So, it transformed from just a single smaller antenna with only narrow band capability to both single and multiple antenna options that could bring broadband capabilities. So, at the Monaco Yacht Show, we recently demonstrated the ability to combine antennas using software and effectively build a larger equivalent aperture with higher throughput. SMW: I understand that you can combine antenna units on the down-link but cannot combine on the transmit side resulting in a relatively narrow band return link. Why is this? Bill Marks: This is not a limitation of the mTenna technology. There are two reasons we have chosen not to combine on the transmit side. First, we haven’t had demand for this from our customers. The use cases consistently show there is not a requirement to transmit a large quantity of data. Second, regulatory compliance requires extraordinary mechanical stability, to the tune of being within 100 microns, to avoid adjacent satellite interference. We see more demand for the ability to separate the apertures. We can position our antennas at different locations around a vessel or vehicle and combine them together. For the transmit side, our system chooses the antenna with the strongest signal to transmit from. Also, we have the capability to combine our antennas even when they are not co-planer. This enables us to install antennas at different angles around a vessel or vehicle. As a result, our transmit capabilities are improved because the antenna is not installed completely flat on the vessel or vehicle. We have found this level of flexibility has been important to our customers SMW: As you note previously, to improve performance on the down-link, you had to combine two antennas. Can the performance of the antenna be improved or is the limitation related to the passive, meta-materials approach? Bill Marks: For many of the use cases we are working on today – where form factor is critical and no moving parts is a requirement, a single panel supports most of the applications our customers want to use - video conferencing, streaming content, and access to cloud-based enterprise applications, for example. At the same time, we will continue to improve the product over time. As happens with most new technologies, Kymeta solutions will evolve and improve over time. Just like TVs, cellphones, and PCs. The first iteration marks a remarkable achievement. These antennas will improve drastically in the future. It's quite a feat to build an antenna utilizing a metamaterials toolset. It has never been done before and there are very few people in the world that understand this technology well enough to create a commercially viable product. This is a completely new type of technology. In addition, there are markets that care about more than just efficiency. If you are just going for pure efficiency, you should get a 2.4 M traditional parabolic antenna. That’s not really what’s driving most of our initial customers. Our customers are looking for solutions to communications challenges that cannot be solved by traditional parabolic dish technology. The requirement is for a thin, light, low power consuming antenna with no moving parts, and a solution that will keep pace as satellites improve as well. We would be more than happy to compare our efficiency with any solution that meets these requirements. At the same time, when you go to the Monaco Yacht show next year, you are going to see some vessels that don’t have domes on them anymore. SMW: What other improvements are you planning? We are going through a continuous improvement program. For example, the 70 cm antennas coming out in six months will probably be lighter. We have never gone through the effort of having to carve weight away. We can make our waveguide lighter, and we are working on a one cable solution and complete automation of commissioning and provisioning. A whole bunch of things are going to happen over the next several years. Those are examples of planned improvements to the first generation. SMW: With the coming of the LEOs, it will be necessary to acquire and track two satellites simultaneously, can you do that? Bill Marks: We form two beams today that are simultaneous. It’s a full duplex antenna. We form a transmit and receive beam at the same time. We also think that into the future, we will be able to generate multiple frequency beams. For example, multiple frequency, transmit and receive at the same time. We can track a satellite going below the horizon and at the same time track a rising satellite. SMW: What about antenna pricing. We have heard that a single unit goes for around $30,000. Assuming you are going to sell a two antenna package solution, what does that do to the pricing? Bill Marks: We sell full terminals with an iDirect modem for less than the number you just quoted to distributors. How distributors are marking them up is up to them. Maybe it is what the distributors are selling them for but that’s not our price. However, we believe that the price will drop significantly as we are able to start to scale. We believe that ultimately, we will be able to build antennas that are similar in price to television sets. SMW: You mentioned that you are currently shipping antennas. What markets are buying these antennas? Bill Marks: We will be distributing hundreds in 2017 and thousands in 2018. We have orders for those today. A lot of these customers are buying them for applications that have never been used for satellite communications before because there wasn't an antenna or solution they can use. They are going on buses, trains and RVs and small vessels, yachts, construction sites agricultural equipment and renewable energy facilities. We have eight different verticals into which our antennas are being deployed in today. SMW: Can you tell us more about the KĀLO service for Yachts? Bill Marks: KĀLO is designed for much more than yachts. In fact, it is primarily designed to address the needs of a vast range of use cases. The rationale behind creating KĀLO is to make it easy to buy satellite services for industries that haven’t traditionally used satellite communications. What we are learning from our customers in rail, construction, and regional trucking for example, is that the throughput we are offering is more than enough for their applications. KĀLO is sold in familiar by-the-gigabyte plans that everyone is familiar with. When we buy a gigabyte package, most of us have an idea of how much data we can use based on the plan level. That familiarity is central to making it easy to buy satellite services, without having to become an expert in satellite communications. It is designed to be easy to use and purchase while being extremely cost effective when compared to traditional CIR services. In maritime applications, it’s providing connectivity for the crew – which, in many cases, will be a first. For example, the crew on the Maltese Falcon had connectivity on an Atlantic crossing for the first time with KĀLO. They also ended up using KĀLO as their primary service when crossing the Atlantic because the solution was performing better for them than the traditional service. For the most part, unless the owner is aboard, yachts are using 2 Mbps or less. You can stream IPTV, video conference, access business applications, and more over that. We provide 4 Mbps receive X 1 Mbps transmit on KĀLO. It's well within our capability and we are finding it provides more than enough bandwidth for our customers’ use cases. SMW: Is the deal with Panasonic over or are you going to come back to them with more iterations of the antenna? The Maritime deal is done. That doesn’t prevent us from working with them on other types of projects. I don’t know how dedicated to maritime they are, but they have certainly been dedicated to aviation. At some point, maybe we will work with them again. SMW: Given that the Toyota deal is strategically important to Kymeta, how is it going so far and what are the next steps? Bill Marks: We are are in the process of designing a standard sized antenna that can fit into all of Toyota's vehicles and are currently working with Denso on the project. Our target for deployment of the first commercial units is cars is early 20 or 21. Of course, let me emphasize that we are working with other auto manufacturers as well. We are definitely not limiting the use of our antenna to Toyota alone. SMW: Thanks much for the update, Bill and again, congratulations on getting your first products into production and into the market.
An Interview With Bill Marks, COO, Kymeta Corp...
About Bill Marks.... For over 25 years, Bill has been a founder and senior executive in the satellite and cable TV industries and an active investor mobile platform technology and service companies. Prior to that, he was the CEO and Chairman of the Board of Maritime Telecommunications Network (MTN), which provides satellite connectivity and content to remote locations around the world. MTN's segments include cruise lines, oil and gas, news agencies, aviation and the military. In 2007, Bill won the prestigious Ernst and Young Entrepreneur of the Year Award. Earlier in his career, he was involved with DIRECT TV by founding a national sales and installation company that helped Direct TV to become the fastest growing electronics company at the time. Before getting involved with satellite, he held several executive roles in cable TV, including as a multiple system owner and operator.
There are many mobility related satellite industry events and unless you have an unlimited budget, here are the "must attends" and others that may be of interest. Note that the "hot" sectors in the sector are Cruise, Aero and Yachts. Upcoming Conferences: *****Seatrade Cruise Global, 5-8 March 2018, Fort Lauderdale, Florida: In terms of bandwidth demand, this mobility segment tops all but the commercial airline sector. In 2017, Gottlieb International Group presented a special seminar along with Global Eagle Entertainment, and we will be doing a repeat in 2018 - highly recommended and inexpensive. *****Satellite 2018, Washington, D.C. March 12-15, 2018: This is the most widely attended satellite show in the world and includes an excellent conference. However, attendees need to plan their agendas very carefully to avoid conflicts between meetings, sessions you want to attend and visits to selected booths on the show floor. It's definitely a jam packed four days. ***Posidoina, Athens Greece, June 4-8th, 2018: This is a key show due to the Greek shipping industry's leading position in the Tanker industry - the leading cargo maritime sector in terms of VSAT purchases. We expect to do a VSAT applications event at this show. *****Global Connected Aircraft Summit, San Diego, CA June 4-6, 2018: In our opinion, this is the best event dealing with aircraft connectivity. As the commercial airlines struggle to upgrade and install Wi-Fi aboard their aircraft, the demand for bandwidth and associated Internet applications for both passenger entertainment and monitoring of aircraft systems is the prime focus. As the industry is also a leader in the use of IoT and M2M applications, what can be learned at this conference has applicability in other mobility sectors as well. ***CommunicAsia: June 26-28 2018: This is probably the best Asian satellite industry event. While not heavily focused on mobility, we recommend it for the excellent industry networking opportunities - expensive but well worth it. ***** World Satellite Business Week : September 2018: Notably the best conference for networking among top industry executives. A "must attend" with an excellent program. the 2017 conference was excellent. We attended the "Smart Plane" session and found it especially interesting. Other Conferences/Shows of Interest: ***Digital Ship CIO Forum/Cyber Resilience Forum: Held in numerous locations around the world, these events are notable for their focus mainly on IT related issues including cyber security, IoT and M2M. Sponsored globally by Marlink, they are held nearly everywhere. The next events in 2017 are in Tokyo on 30 August, Rotterdam on September 26, Singapore on October 44th, Hamburg on October 10th, etc. As the maritime cargo sector is in a major slump, the shipping people who attend these events are not in a buying mood. These events are probably worth attending at least once for their IOT, M2M and Cyber Security content - if you have the budget and the time. If you are interested in finding buyers, focus on the Tanker sector and attend Posidonia. **PTC Honolulu January 21-24, 2018: This one's a favorite if you are selling to the South Pacific Islands or some Asian customers. Held in a nice casual atmosphere, it's a good networking opportunity. It's also noted for the best business expense "right off" around (a fact that few attendees want to admit) - glad it's held in Hawaii in January.
Upcoming and Recommended Satellite Mobility Related Events
excellent. We attended the "Smart Plane" session and found it especially interesting. Other Conferences/Shows of Interest: ***Digital Ship CIO Forum/Cyber Resilience Forum: Held in numerous locations around the world, these events are notable for their focus mainly on IT related issues including cyber security, IoT and M2M. Sponsored globally by Marlink, they are held nearly everywhere. The next events in 2017 are in Tokyo on 30 August, Rotterdam on September 26, Singapore on October 44th, Hamburg on October 10th, etc. As the maritime cargo sector is in a major slump, the shipping people who attend these events are not in a buying mood. These events are probably worth attending at least once for their IOT, M2M and Cyber Security content - if you have the budget and the time. If you are interested in finding buyers, focus on the Tanker sector and attend Posidonia. **PTC Honolulu January 21-24, 2018: This one's a favorite if you are selling to the South Pacific Islands or some Asian customers. Held in a nice casual atmosphere, it's a good networking opportunity. It's also noted for the best business expense "right off" around (a fact that few attendees want to admit) - glad it's held in Hawaii in January.
